.a_wrap {font-size:14px; font-family:Nanum Gothic, Sans-serif, Arial; line-height:20px;} EAI has been contributing insight and knowledge with the goal of mitigating this dual challenge. At the heart of this is the work of the National Security Panel (NSP), which has been a wellspring of potential solutions to the foreign policy and security issues facing South Korea. The NSP offers timely and pertinent policy recommendations on current issues including the ROK-US alliance, the North Korean nuclear issue, the rise of China and the US-China rivalry, foreign policy towards neighboring countries, and others. In 2016, the Panel focused on the developing rivalry between the US and China by analyzing different dimensions of the hegemonic competition. Factors considered ranged from conventional military and security issues to maritime concerns, finance, investment, foreign aid, science & technology, knowledge, and informatization. This research culminated in the September 2017 publication of the volume U.S.-China Competition in the Architecture of a Regional Order in the Asia-Pacific, which paints a fresh picture of the true nature of the competition between the two powers.   Table of Contents Foreword ■ Young-Sun Ha   I Military Order Chapter 1: Trends in U.S. Defense Budget and Security Strategy ■ Chaesung Chun Chapter 2: The Current Status and Implications of China's Rising Defense Expenditure ■ Dong Ryul Lee Chapter 3: U.S. - China Nuclear & Military Strategic Competition ■ Seong-ho Sheen Chapter 4: U.S.-China Maritime Competition and Security Outlook for the Asia-Pacific Region ■ Young-jun Park Chapter 5: U.S.- China Competitive Relations and North Korea ■ Jihwan Hwang   II Economic Order Chapter 6: U.S.-China Economic Relations: GDP Reversal, Interdependence, Institutional Competition ■ Yul Sohn Chapter 7: Globalization of the Chinese Yuan and Korea's Financial Diplomacy: Inability and Strategic Choice ■ Yong Wook Lee Chapter 8: U.S.-China Competition for Monetary and Financial Hegemony and Currency War After the Global Financial Crisis: Perspectives on Monetary and Financial Strategies ■ Wang-Hwi Lee Chapter 9: U.S.-China Economic Strategies for Asia: Focusing on the Relationship between Investment and Aid ■ Seungjoo Lee   III Emerging Order Chapter 10: U.S.-China Competition for Hegemony and Innovation in Science and Technology ■ Young Ja Bae Chapter 11: Examining the U.S.- China Social Science Knowledge Systems ■ Hun Joon Kim Chapter 12: U.S.-China Charm Offensive in Cyber Space: The Future of Information and Culture Industries ■ Sangbae Kim      

U.S.-China Relations 2025 analyzes and focuses on how the bilateral relationship between the United States and China will change over the next 10 years. Twelve leading experts participated in this research and produced chapters exploring on the major issues including: mutual perceptions, military relations, economic architecture, trade, currency, energy, the environment, and soft power.   Table of Contents   Introduction   Chapter 1. Mutual Perceptions between the United States and China: Partners or Competitors? ｜ Hyung-Min Joo   Chapter 2. U.S.-China Military Relations 2025 ｜ Dong Sun Lee   Chapter 3. U.S.-China Trade Relations 2025 ｜ Dong-Hun Kim   Chapter 4. China’s Choice: The Political Economy of Key Currency and the RMB ｜ Yong Wook Lee   Chapter 5. U.S.-China Relations and East Asia: Strategic Competitions over the Economic Architecture ｜ Yul Sohn   Chapter 6. The Soft Power Market in 2025 and U.S.-China Relations ｜ Jung Kim   Chapter 7. The International Politics of Climate Change and U.S.-China Relations ｜  Beom-Shik Shin   Chapter 8. U.S.-China Energy Relations 2025 ｜ Joo-Youn Jung  

The executive summary of Toward 2020: Ten Agendas for South Korea’s Foreign Policy by the East Asia Institute’s National Security Panel has now been released (Panel Chair Young-Sun Ha, EAI). Launched in March 2011, the National Security Panel’s “Ten Agendas for South Korea’s Foreign Policy” project aimed to provide policy recommendations for the next administration’s foreign policy based on mid- and long-term understanding of changes in the global and regional architecture. This research used the approach of social network analysis by grouping together the different challenges into four clusters and examining how they interlink. Those clusters include governance, security, economy, and the environment for which two to four experts contributed with policy papers. This executive summary is based upon the working paper series on “Ten Agendas for South Korea’s Foreign Policy” originally published in Korean. The following are the abstracts of each paper in English.         Security   The Future Security Order in Asia and South Korea's Strategy Dong Sun Lee (Korea University) Prospects for Changes and Stability in Chinese Politics and Economy Dong Ryul Lee (Dongduk Women’s University) · Bonggyo Seo (Dongduk Women’s University) Kim Jong-un’s North Korea and Coevolution Strategy for North Korea Dongho Jo (Ewha Womans University) · Sung-bae Kim (Institute for National Security Strategy)   South Korea’s Maritime Strategy in the 2010s Min Gyo Koo (Seoul National University) Economy   The Growth of Asian FTA Networks and South Korea’s Strategy: The Possibility of Bilateral Multilateralism Chi Wook Kim (Ulsan University) Changing Global Financial Order and South Korea's Choice: Linking Regional Multilateralism with Global Multilateralism Yong Wook Lee (Korea University) Changing Architecture of Development Cooperation in the 21st Century and Strategy for South Korea Seungjoo Lee (Chung-Ang University) Environment   South Korean Diplomacy and International Politics of Environment and Climate Change Beom-Shik Shin (Seoul National University) The Emerging Global Energy Architecture: Challenges for Korea by 2020 Younkyoo Kim (Hanyang University) Aging Population and East Asia Security Seongho Sheen (Seoul National University)       About the National Security Panel Since 2004, the East Asia Institute’s National Security Panel of foreign policy and security experts have been providing policy recommendations for South Korea to set the agenda on international security and foreign policy issues. The NSP has published four books: Korea’s Grand Strategy for a New Century: Weaving a Network State (2006), North Korean Nuclear Crisis and Peace on the Korean Peninsula (2006), East Asian Community: Myth and Reality (2008), The Emergence of Complex Alliances in the 21st Century (2010) and Crisis and Complexity: Changing World Order after the Financial Crisis (2011).

Author Beom-Shik Shin is an associate professor in the department of international relations at Seoul National University.         Abstract Global environmental politics, which had been caught up in conflict since the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, has been making progress following the Durban Conference in 2011. It is unlikely though that the new framework will rely on another coercive regulatory system like the Kyoto Protocol. Rather it has shifted from what had been a binding system to a voluntary one. Under this system, each country will set its own emission standards which will be reported to and accredited by the international community. This will mean that the international pressure directed toward specific countries will gradually mitigate.   On the other hand, based on previous research that has observed the prospect of global environmental politics, the issue of climate change is likely to trigger more complex problems. It will be linked to the issues of trade, food, and even security issues, rather than just limited to the environment. It is therefore necessary to come up with a solution that can tackle climate change issues from the root. In the future, climate change will increasingly affect traditional challenges such as the economy and national security.   In order to become more environmental friendly, South Korea must initiate change; it must build political, economic, and social competence. A measured combination the concept of “environmental mainstreaming” and “strategic environmental assessment” must take place, which will help reconstruct the norms, institutions, organization and political agenda of South Korea so that environmental issues can be more effectively addressed. This should not be limited to domestic policies but be also applicable to international policies, such as economic development and aid.   It is important to examine the long-term effects of climate change on international politics, and observe how key issues on the dilemma continue to interconnect. The agendas regarding trade, energy, and food crisis, which are especially relevant to the issue of climate change, deserves closer attention.   Since East Asia is particularly vulnerable to crises due to heightened tension and strategic mistrust in the region, collaboration and adjustments related to climate change at the regional level are both crucial and urgent. Countries located in East Asia must cooperate on developing and institutionalizing diverse arrangements for environment, energy, and food cooperation.   South Korea’s effort to transform and enhance its capability in tackling climate change issues through innovative and active measures will naturally increase the country’s soft and hard power, as well leadership and position in international politics. It is critical to avoid meaningless efforts just to stand out in the international politics of climate change without securing a corresponding capability at home. In particular, South Korea should maintain a prudent position not to become entangled in great power conflicts.       The full text in Korean is available here

Author Seungjoo Lee is a professor of political science and international relations at Chung-Ang University.         Abstract The global politics of development cooperation in the twenty-first century is rapidly changing. This is symbolized by the fact that in spite of the 2008 financial crisis, the main donating states have actually increased the volume of Official Development Assistance (ODA).   Development cooperation in the twenty-first century is closely related to the issue of how to manage interdependence at different levels in a globalized world. In particular, an area of focus will be on how to supervise collective actions in response to the increased number of actors while harmonizing diverse models of development cooperation. At the same time, development cooperation contains aspects of strategic interest in which major states wish to use this development cooperation architecture for formulating a new world order for the twenty-first century. In other words, the states are striving to influence the redesign of development cooperation architecture, which progresses in tandem with a changing world order of the 21st century, which will help them to become more vocal in the process of world order re-structuring.   The changing architecture of development cooperation is a new opportunity for South Korea, which has transformed from an aid recipient to donor country. South Korea has been working to strengthen the diplomacy of development cooperation by joining the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-Development Assistance Committee (OECD-DAC). The significance of Seoul’s development cooperation diplomacy remains more notable in East Asia. While South Korea is embracing development cooperation norms and order centered on the OECD-DAC regime, China is seeking an independent development cooperation paradigm outside such a regime in order to extend its influence globally. Besides, Japan is currently devising a new development policy after suffering policy failure in the past. Southeast Asian states on the other hand still remain aid recipients. As mentioned above, East Asia consists of states with different level, scale, and characteristics in terms of development cooperation policy, delineate the complexity of the regional architecture. How to effectively respond to the complexity of development cooperation in East Asia remains an important challenge for South Korea. Furthermore, the diplomacy of development cooperation would contribute to a sustainable development in the complex world politics of the twenty-first century. At the same time, it has the potential to further a country’s national interests and enhance its national standing. Therefore, development cooperation diplomacy is a challenge and an opportunity for South Korea.       The full text in Korean is available here

Author Chi Wook Kim is an assistant professor of International Relations at Ulsan University.           Abstract During the 2010s, trade governance in East Asia will be regulated by networks of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). In response to such a development, South Korea should maintain bilateral multilateralism approach, which promotes bilateral FTAs to form a multilateralism regime, while at the same time focusing domestically on improving national economic governance.   East Asia has experienced both economic ups and downs in the 1990s. However, with the 2008 global financial crisis, the region faces a new era again. The return of Asia in international politics is epitomized by the rise of China and relative decline of the United States. Such reorganization of political status and bilateral relations of the United States and China will determine the future trade order in East Asia.   Since the end of World War II, East Asia has succeeded in emerging as the “global factory” under the multilateral trade order, but failed to establish any internal multilateral trade treaties such as in Europe or North America. Instead, overlapping bilateral FTAs have emerged as typical arrangements that regulate Asia’s trade order and policies of each country. However, U.S.-China relations have emerged as a notable variable in the region’s trade politics, with a growing possibility of power transition between the two. China, to some extent, has succeeded in establishing regional clout via aggressively pursuing FTA strategies with Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) at the center. Meanwhile, the United States has remained aloof to FTA politics in Asia. It recently adopted, however, the Trans-Pacific Partnership during the Obama administration as a way to become more integrated to the region.   South Korea remains in a precarious position with FTA competition between China and the United States. The FTA networks in Asia are becoming increasingly denser as China expands its network based on ASEAN while and U.S. networks are rapidly growing through TPP. The fact that FTA polarization in Asia is based on bilateralism will be a challenge rather than an opportunity for South Korea. As such, Seoul’s trade diplomacy in the twenty-first century should focus on transforming bilateral FTAs into de facto multilateral regimes. South Korea should seek the policy of multilateral regime while establishing a system of coexistence in which the relationship between bilateralism and multilateralism remains complementary. Specifically, a bilateral FTA should embrace elements of “World Trade Organization (WTO) plus,” and be based upon Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) that encompasses East Asia and the Pacific. This is the strategy to shape regional multilateral treaties to be internalized within the WTO regime.   Domestic politics should refrain from defining FTAs as a panacea or poison; rather the focus should be on its application. For South Korea, which depends heavily upon foreign trade, free trade is not an option but a must. The issue remains on what means South Korea promotes free trade and for whom it actively pursues such an objective. Among others, economic governance should be improved in order to facilitate the gains of trade liberalization that spreads throughout society via FTAs. Conclusively, responding to the FTA phenomenon in Asia during the 2010s, South Korea should favor externally bilateral multilateralism and distribution-friendly economic governance at home.       The full text in Korean is available here

Author Yong Wook Lee is an associate professor of department of political science and international relations at Korea University.         Abstract The 2008 global financial crisis calls for change in the U.S.-led neo-liberal financial and monetary order on a global and regional scale. After the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, East Asia has been pursuing regional financialization by constructing institutionally cooperative mechanisms. These measures for prevention of and response to the financial crisis began with bilateral swap agreements in 2000 and then became institutionalized with the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) and were further broadened with discussion on creating an Asian Monetary Fund (AMF), the counterpart of the current IMF. ASEAN+3 (China, Korea, and Japan) successfully launched the AMRO (ASEAN Plus Three Macroeconomic Research Office) in Singapore in May 2011, a sister organization of CMIM and an internal financial supervisory board, thereby realizing the possibility of an AMF. The revitalization of developing an internal financial market is focused on bond market expansion, as seen with the Asian Bond Market Initiative (ABMI) in 2002. ASEAN+3 established the Credit Guarantee Investment Facility (CGIF) in May 2011, a critical mechanism for bond growth in Asia and they are currently actively discussing setting up a Regional Settlement Institute (RSI), which will provide payment service for internal bond exchange.   With the international financial and monetary order in a period of transition, how can South Korea play the role of a rule shaper, encompassing not only East Asia but also the rest of the world? Supply and management of capital for stabilizing the rate of exchange, creation of a financial safety net, and economic development remain South Korea’s long terms goals of financial and monetary policies. As such, how can South Korea pursue such objectives while at the same time maintain policy autonomy in order to reflect its preference in the global and regional financial and monetary order?   In this regard, South Korea should pursue multilateralism in its financial and monetary diplomacy. As a middle power, Seoul should consider multilateralism as not only an ends but also as a means. More specifically, South Korea, while taking on the role of an honest broker, should direct its energy toward institutionalizing regional financial and monetary cooperation while at the same time participate in the rule-making process on a global-level through the G20 on the basis of its regional cooperation. A strategy encompassing both the regional and global level via the prism of multilateralism offers the possibility for South Korea to imprint its policy preference during this period of reshaping the world economic order. Through strengthening regional multilateralism, South Korea can build trust with China and Japan and gain the experience of mutual cooperation as well as direct policies together, which will help Korea’s policy preference be reflected in global institution. While it remains true that a middle-power encounters limitations in launching multilateral efforts and constructing institutional framework, it may effectively employ the ongoing multilateral framework in progress.       The full text in Korean is available here

Author Younkyoo Kim is an associate professor of international relations at the Division of International Studies, Hanyang University.         Abstract Energy security remains a contested term but more and more analysts, especially those studying global energy governance, have come to define it in response to broad and often interlinked domestic and foreign energy governance or challenges to states. In examining this question of the globe’s energy future path we may observe that the global governance perspective furnishes us with a useful barometer of evolving trends in global energy institutions, norms and interests and offers us some clues to future energy trajectory. This paper seeks to make a contribution to the understanding of the nature and direction of Korea’s energy diplomacy by 2020. This paper offers a unique perspective on Korean energy policy in the emerging global energy architecture and its dilemmas in dealing with new institutions, norms, and advances in technology.       The full text in Korean is available here