Eric Ballbach (Research Fellow, German Institute for International and Security Affairs) analyzes that the failed Hanoi summit served as a critical juncture that drove North Korea to abandon its goal of US normalization in favor of aggressive military modernization and a revised nuclear posture with a lower threshold for use. He argues that Pyongyang's active support for Russia in the Ukraine war has fundamentally altered Europe's calculus, shifting their view of North Korea from a distant issue to a direct participant in a European conflict, which has effectively depleted the political will necessary for mediation. Consequently, he warns South Korea against over-relying on a potential Trump-led re-engagement or European facilitation, suggesting that the only remaining, albeit slim, space for dialogue is strictly limited to non-security sectors such as the environment.