 EAI Issue Briefing No. MASI 2011-08
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After Kim Jong-il's sudden death in December 2011, North Korea will likely become more dependent on China as the new leadership cannot help but seek China's support in order to stabilize North Korean society. It is not in the South Korean interest to let North Korea keep increasing its dependence on China and let China keep increasing its influence over North Korea. China's growing influence over North Korea will inevitably lead to its leverage on the whole Korean Peninsula and also affect South Korea-China relations, not only with regard to the North Korean issue but also with regard to South Korea's strategic choice between the United States and China. Thus, if South Korea wants to keep its initiative on the Korean Peninsula in spite of the changing balance of power in East Asia, it needs to balance against China's influence over North Korea. In order to balance against China's influence, South Korea should seek to enlarge its influence over North Korea by encouraging the North to depend more and more on the South Korean side.
 
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