On January 17, 2012, the East Asia Institute invited three scholars from Israel, Professor Eytan Gilboa (Bar-Ilan University), Director Efraim Inbar (Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies), and Former Senior Director of Israel National Security Council, Uzi Rubin, to discuss on the Arab Spring, Iran’s missile threat, and changes in the Middle East. The following are some of the main points of the three presentations.

Summary of the Seminar

The Arab Spring that began in early 2011 swept across much of the Arab world and brought about significant changes in some of the major countries in the region.

In the first presentation on “The 2011 Arab Uprising and Israel’s National Security,” Professor Efraim Inbar outlined three trends that he believes have emerged. The first is that despite the media perceptions, there has been nothing new with the Arab uprisings. There have been a number of leaders removed, the uprisings have led to the increasing weakness of the Arab state, yet there has been no clear emergence of fully-fledged democracies. The second trend is that there has been the strengthening of non-Arab countries as traditional Arab powerhouses such as Egypt are focused on domestic concerns. Specifically three non-Arab countries have been increasing their influence; Iran is growing as a revisionist power in the region, Turkey has a strong economy but is distancing itself from the West, while Israel power-difference with its neighbors is growing. The third trend is the perceived relative decline in the influence of the United States in the Middle East, particularly as it withdraws from Iraq and winds down operations in Afghanistan.

These three trends have a major impact on Israel’s security in several ways. The first is that there is now the emergence of many unknown actors in the region who play by different rules as well as a number of power vacuums in which extremists could seize power. Taken all together, it would make the outlook for Israel’s national security very uncertain.

In the second presentation on “The Effects of the 2011 Arab Uprisings on US-Israeli Relations,” Professor Eytan Gilboa focused on the changing nature of U.S.-Israeli relations during the uprisings. His general characterization on the bilateral relationship was that the United States and Israel generally agreed on the same goals, but hold different views on the means. Israel has not show the same enthusiasm for the Arab uprisings and remains concerned about the overall outcome. In such a way, the worry is that events in the Arab uprising resemble Iran in 1979 during the revolution that overthrew the Shah. At the time many held optimistic predictions, but the interim government was eventually replaced with a theocracy.

Not only with the Arab uprising, but also with other issues there have been some differences between the United States and Israel. Iran’s nuclear program threatens the region and will allow for it to extend its strategic capability. While both the United States and Israel recognize that the nuclear program is not just a threat to the region, but also world peace. In spite of this, both sides maintain different measures to deal with the nuclear challenge.

The final presentation by Uzi Rubin on “Overview of missile proliferation in the Middle East” focused mainly on the relationship between North Korea and Iran. There has been widespread proliferation of missiles and nuclear programs in the Middle East, particularly with North Korea supplying the technology. Of the seventeen countries and entities in the Middle East (including Hamas and Hezbollah), fifteen have missiles capabilities of different kinds. North Korea has supplied six types of missiles to nine countries in the region.

Overall, Uzi Rubin outlines two motivations for the pursuit of missile programs in the Middle East, the first is that they constitute a cheap strike option and the second is that they are the main weapon in asymmetric warfare. North Korea, for the most part, has been the initiator and provider of many missile programs in the Middle East. For example, the Iranian Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile was based mainly on North Korea’s Nodong-1 missile. Previously, attention has mainly focused on missile developments in North Korea as a precursor to what would emerge in the Middle East. However, unlike North Korea whose test failed, Iran has successfully managed to place a satellite in space and is making many advances in its missile technology. Considering these advances in Iran, attention should now focus on developments in the Middle East will impact upon what will happen in North Korea. ■

About the Speakers

Eytan Gilboa

Eytan Gilboa is Professor of Political Science and Communication, Director of the School of Communication, Director of the Center for International Communication and Senior Researcher at the BESA Center for Strategic Studies, all at Bar-Ilan University in Israel. He is also a Visiting Professor of Public Diplomacy at the University of Southern California (USC). He is a world renowned expert on international communication, public diplomacy and US policy in the Middle East. He has published several books and numerous articles, and has won several significant international fellowships and awards. His most recent book is an edited volume: US-Israel Relations in a New Era: Issues and Challenges after 9/11(Routledge, 2009). Prof. Gilboa received his B.A. degree in Political Science from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and his M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in Government from Harvard University. He has taught at the Hebrew University and has been a visiting professor in leading American and European universities including Harvard, UCLA, Georgetown, Tufts, the American University in Washington DC and the University of Hamburg. He has also been a senior research fellow at the Rand Corporation, the Center for International and Strategic Studies in Washington, DC, the Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and the USC Center on Public Diplomacy. He was a consultant to the Prime Minister Office and the Ministries of Defense and Foreign affairs, Academic Director of International Studies at the National Defense College, and Chair of the Foreign Service Selection Committee. He contributes op-ed articles to Israeli and international newspapers, and serves as a commentator on television and radio networks.

Efraim Inbar

Efraim Inbar is a Professor in Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University and Director of its renowned Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (the BESA Center). Born in Romania (1947), Inbar was educated at the Hebrew University (B.A. in Political Science and English Literature) and at the University of Chicago (M.A. and Ph.D. in Political Science). He served as visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University (2004), at Georgetown University (1991-92), and visiting scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (1996). Prof. Inbar was appointed as a Manfred Warner NATO Fellow (1998), was a visiting fellow at the (London) International Institute for Strategic Studies (2000), and was the recipient of the Onassis Fellowship (2003). He often lectures at institutions such as RAND, Harvard, MIT, Columbia, Oxford, and Yale Universities. Inbar’s area of specialization is Middle Eastern strategic issues with a special interest in the politics and strategy of Israeli national security. He has written over 60 articles in professional journals. He has authored five books: Outcast Countries in the World Community (1985), War and Peace in Israeli Politics. Labor Party Positions on National Security (1991), Rabin and Israel’s National Security (1999), The Israeli-Turkish Entente (2001), and Israel's National Security: Issues and Challenges since the Yom Kippur War (2008). He has also edited eleven collections of articles. Prof. Inbar served in the Israel Defense Force (IDF) as a paratrooper. He was a member of the Political Strategic Committee of the National Planning Council and the Chair of the Committee for the National Security Curriculum at the Ministry of Education. He served on the Academic Committee of the History Department of the IDF and as the President of the Israel Association of International Studies. Prof. Inbar is widely quoted in the Israeli and international press.

Uzi Rubin

Uzi Rubin established and was the first Director of the Israel Missile Defense Organization within the Israel Ministry of Defense, in charge of Israel's national missile defense programs. From January 1991 to July 1999 he directed the nationwide development effort of Israel’s Arrow missile defense weapon system, leading it from preliminary design to full-scale development and testing an on to series production. Previous to that he held the positions of Apprentice Engineer, Avions Marcel Dassault (1962), Design and Test Engineer, Engineering Division, Israel Aircraft Industries (1963 –1979), Assistant Director, R&D Directorate for Defense Programs, Israel Ministry of Defense (1979 – 1989), Head of SDIO Cooperation Office, Israel Ministry of Defense (1987 – 1989) and Science Fellow, Center for International Security and Arms Control (CISAC), Stanford University (1989 – 1990). At Stanford, he co – directed the CISAC major program on missile proliferation. In July 1999, he joined the newly established Israel National Security Council in the Prime Minister's Office where he was a Senior Director for Proliferation and Technology. In April 2001 he returned to the Israel Ministry of Defense, where he served as a Special Assistant for R&D Programs in the Office of the Minister of Defense until his retirement from Government service in December 2002. For his achievements during his government career, Uzi Rubin was awarded the prestigious Israel Defense Prize in 1996, the US David Israel Award for Meritorious Achievement in Theater Missile Defense in 2000, and a second Israel Defense Prize in 2003. He has had articles published on missile proliferation and missile defense in a number of journals and newspapers including ORBIS – A Journal of World Affairs, MA’ARACHOT, Israel Defense Forces Magazine for Military Thought, The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Arms Control Today, Israel Review, Haaretz, Wall Street Journal, Washington Times, Space News, Defense News, Commentair (in French), and Security Index (in Russian). His research papers were published by the Begin Sadaat Institute for Strategic Studies as well as the Israel Institute for National Strategic Studies. He speaks frequently in international conferences on missile threat and missile defense, and is currently the invited presenter of global missile threats in the annual multinational missile defense conferences of the US Missile Defense Agency. Uzi Rubin received his BSc in Aeronautical Engineering in 1962 from the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, and his ME in Aeronautical Engineering 1962 from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy N.Y. and served in the Artillery Corps of the Israel Defense Forces (1956 – 1958). Having completed a professional career of 40 years in Israel's defense industry and Israel's Government, he is now an independent researcher and consultant specializing in defense and military technologies. His company, Rubincon Ltd, is currently providing consulting services to the Israel Ministry of Defense as well as leading defense industries in Israel and abroad.

Moderator

Sook-Jong Lee, East Asia Institute

Discussants

Young-chol Choe, Seoul Jangsin University

Changmo Choi, Konkuk University

Sang Ryul Jung, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

Chang Su Kim, Korea Institute for Defense Analyses

Tae Hyun Kim, Chungang University

Younkyoo Kim, Hanyang University

Chang-Kwoun Park, Korea Institute for Defense Analyses