Editor's Note

In this paper, Seong-ho Sheen assesses China’s overall military power by analyzing its current military posture and reform endeavors in terms of conventional military capability, strategic nuclear capability, and power projection capability. Based on this analysis, he develops a scenario of China’s three-stage future defense reform in line with its economic growth. China’s military power, according to him, is still far below that of the US in all aspects but China’s ongoing efforts to bolster its military strength may eventually lead to a competition with the US as it will pursue increased influence and prestige based on its growing military and economic power.

Quotes from the paper 

Introduction

In assessing China’s military power trajectory, this paper will focus on three areas; conventional military capability, strategic nuclear capability, and power projection capability. Traditional Chinese military strategy has been based on the concept of mainland defense and preparation for a Taiwan contingency. This strategy has been based on a defensive use of military force. Throughout the Cold War and up until the 2000s, China’s military planning has been built upon large ground forces to defend its mainland from enemy invasion and missile forces to launch an attack on independent Taiwan and foreign interventionists, most possibly the US military in the region. As of 2015, official Chinese military strategy stated “China will unswervingly follow the path of peaceful development, pursue an independent foreign policy of peace and a national defense policy that is defensive in nature, oppose hegemonism and power politics in all forms, and will never seek hegemony or expansion” (China’s Military Strategy 2015).

Yet at the same time, Chinese officials increasingly feel the pressure of neighboring countries working to contain China’s growing power and influence in the region, especially the efforts led by the United States in the 21st century. There have been growing Chinese efforts to push back against American encirclement and secure China’s sphere of influence. This strategy has evolved into what is known as Anti-Access Area Denial (A2/AD). China’s A2/AD uses “a series of interrelated missile, sensor, guidance, and other technologies designed to deny freedom of movement” to keep any potential adversaries, including the United States, from intervening in a conflict off of China’s coast or from attacking the Chinese mainland (Biddle and Oelrich 2016). Some see the new Chinese strategy as more aggressive in nature and posing a grave threat to US power projection capabilities in the region. Still, from the Chinese perspective, A2/AD is an effort to defend its core interests close to its mainland, and are not an attempt to engage in any kind of expansionist ventures in and beyond its regional boundaries.

US vs Chinese Nuclear Force

China’s strategic nuclear capability appears even weaker compared to that of the US when you look at the composition, quality, technology, and operational capability of its nuclear forces. As shown in the table below, China does not have a nuclear triad, and its nuclear deterrence mostly depends on a small arsenal of outdated ICBMs against the powerful US triad system of land-based ICBMs, strategic nuclear submarines, and nuclear bombers.

                Table 1. US-China Nuclear Forces

               Source: Sheen (2017, 16)

China's Power Projection Capability

China does not have meaningful power projection capability due to the focus of its military goals on mainland defense. China has just finished refurbishing a Cold War era Soviet aircraft carrier and is in the process of building its first indigenous aircraft carrier, while the United States has ten active carrier strike groups. In 2017, the PLAN’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, concluded its second training deployment to the South China Sea, its first with an embarked J-15 fighter aircraft, and conducted its first port visit to Hong Kong. China’s first domestic aircraft carrier was launched in 2017 and will likely join the fleet by 2019. The new carrier is a modified version of the Liaoning, but is similarly limited in its capabilities due to its lack of a catapult and the smaller size of its flight deck compared to US carriers. China is expected to begin construction on its first catapult-capable carrier in 2018, which will enable additional fighter aircraft, fixed-wing early-warning aircraft, and more rapid flight operations. However, China’s new aircraft carriers are substantially less capable than US Navy carriers. It will take long time and a significant degree of investment before China can match US forces in any meaningful way (US Department of Defense 2018).

China's Defense Reform and Future Military Power 

Based on the discussion of China’s current military posture and its reform efforts in terms of its conventional military capability, strategic nuclear capability, and power projection capability, this paper projects the following developments in China’s military power in sync with its GDP per capita growth. First, China will try to finish its first stage of military modernization with the current organizational restructuring focusing on the centralization of command and control, enhanced joint military operation capability with the elevation of navy and air force combat readiness, and a downsize of the army together with the creation of independent nuclear strategic forces. This will be pursued through 2025, when China is projected to achieve the level of 15k GDP per capita.

For the second phase of military reform by 2035, China will try to achieve meaningful strategic nuclear deterrence capability against the United States with a focus on enhancing the survivability of its ICBMs with mobile and MIRV capability. It will also try to build its operational SLBMs capability within the first defensive layer in the East Pacific. It may also try to build strategic bomber capability to have a basic level of triad capability. This will be in line with the country’s achievement of a 20k GDP per capita.

For the final phase of military reform by 2049, China will try to achieve a world class military power on par with that of the United States. This will include state-of-the-art military technology in terms of conventional military capability, a powerful strategic nuclear capability with a full triad, and a global power projection capability. Within this period, China is projected to achieve economic development to the level of 30k GDP per capita.

Author’s Biography

Seong-ho Sheen is Professor of International Security and Director of Institute of International Affairs (IIA) at Graduate School of International Studies (GSIS), Seoul National University. He was a visiting fellow at the East-West Center DC, a CNAPS fellow at the Brookings Institution, an assistant research professor at Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), Honolulu, Hawaii and a research fellow at Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA), Cambridge, Mass, the U.S. He has taught at University of Massachusetts Boston. In addition, he advised various government organizations including ROK National Assembly. His area of interest includes International Security, US Foreign Policy, Northeast Asian Politics and the Korean Peninsula. Sheen received a Ph.D. and M.A. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University and B.A. from Seoul National University.