오바마(Barack Obama) 2기 대외정책에 관한 전재성 EAI 아시아안보연구센터 소장의 기고문이 싱크탱크세계평의회(Council of Councils)의 ‘Expert Roundup’에 게재되었습니다. 전재성 소장은 기고문을 통해 오바마 2기 대외정책이 큰 틀에서 1기와의 연속성을 유지하게 될 것으로 전망하면서 동시에 새롭게 직면하게 될 과제로 중국과의 “신형대국관계” 구축, 미국과 동맹관계를 맺고 있는 국가들끼리의 협력증진, 영토분쟁·민족주의·역사문제 등의 동아시아 지역문제, 북핵과 남중국해 문제와 같은 심각한 도전 등을 제시하였습니다. 싱크탱크세계평의회는 주요 국제사회 현안에 대한 세계 전문가들의 의견을 취합하여 매월 한 차례 Expert Roundup으로 발행하고 있으며 2월에는 “Global Advice for Obama's Second Term”을 주제로 오바마 2기 대외정책에 관한 전문가들의 견해를 취합하여 발표하였습니다. 미국 외교관계평의회(Council on Foreign Relations: CFR)는 현재 국제사회가 직면한 복합적인 도전들에 대한 해법을 찾고자 국제적으로 권위있는 22개 정책연구기관들과 함께 지난 2012년 3월 싱크탱크세계평의회를 발족하였으며, EAI는 국내 정책연구기관 가운데 유일하게 싱크탱크세계평의회 창립기관 중 하나로 선정되어 다른 연구기관들과 함께 협력하고 있습니다.

 

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전재성 EAI 아시아안보연구센터 소장 싱크탱크세계평의회 기고문

 

Continuity will be the most important feature for the Obama administration's second-term foreign policy, particularly in Asia. On the basis of the achievements during the first term in pivoting American strategic weight to Asia, the new foreign policy team will seek to exercise leadership in the region as an Asia-Pacific power.

 

Another factor that will support the prospect for continuity in Washington's Asia policy is the strategic orientation of the new leaders in East Asia: Except for Japan and North Korea, new leaders in China, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan will continue with the strategic approach of their predecessors. Only the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party and North Korea under the young Kim Jong-un increase unpredictability in the region.

 

Despite this continuity, President Obama will still face four new tasks during his second term: First, the United States needs to elaborate more on the so-called "new forms of great power relationship" with China. Despite announcements from leaders in both countries that a peaceful and stable coexistence of two great powers is possible during a period of power shift, it is still not evident how they will reduce strategic mistrust and heighten the level of cooperation.

 

Second, as the alliance network built by the United States transforms itself from the "hub-and-spoke" model to an "inter-spoke" network to ease tensions between China and its neighbors, Washington's role to encourage cooperation among its alliance partners will become a more important task. For example, faced with rising tensions between South Korea and Japan due to territorial disputes and historical issues, President Obama's role to mediate between these countries will draw much attention. Third, East Asia is suffering from its own regional problems: territorial disputes, rising nationalism, conflicting interpretations of history, and power transition coming from the rise of China. The U.S. attempt to design a new regional architecture should be based upon deep regional sensitivity. Only by understanding the issues affecting East Asians at home will President Obama's Asia policy be able to take root in the region.

 

Fourth, dealing wisely with regional flashpoints, such as the North Korean nuclear problem and the South China Sea dispute, will strengthen U.S. credibility and create a lasting legacy. In particular, since the North Korean nuclear problem originates from the existential instability created after the end of the Cold War, the Obama administration should pursue a more positive initiative in resolving it during his second term in office.

 

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