2024 EAI Public Opinion Poll on International Affairs: Overall Perception, United States, China, North Korea

	2023 Korean Survey	2024 Korean Survey
Population	Adults aged 18 and over	Adults aged 18 and over
Sampling Methods	Proportional selection by region, gender, and age (as of July 2023)	Proportional selection by region, gender, and age (as of July 2024)
Sample Size	1,008	1,006
Survey Methods	Face-to-face Interviews (Personal Interview: PI)	Web Survey
Response rate	-	31.2% (among 3,220 people who requested, 1,006 people completed the survey)
Survey Date	2023. 8. 25. - 2023. 9. 13.	2024. 8. 26. - 2024. 8. 28.
Survey Agency	Hankook Research Co. Ltd.	Hankook Research Co. Ltd.
Composition of Respondents	[Gender] Male 49.8%; Female 50.2% [Age] Under 20: 1.4% 20 to 29: 14.9% 30 to 39: 14.7% 40 to 49: 18.0% 50 to 59: 19.9% Over 60: 31.2%	[Gender] Male 49.5%; Female 50.5% [Age] Under 20: 1.4% 20 to 29: 12.5% 30 to 39: 14.8% 40 to 49: 18.8% 50 to 59: 20.3% Over 60: 32.2%

 

Ⅰ. General Perception of External Affairs

South Korea's Greatest Threats, 'Climate Change' and 'North Korean Threat' Tied

 

● When asked about the greatest threat facing South Korea (up to two choices), “Climate change and environmental issues” ranked first at 51.2%, followed closely by “North Korea’s nuclear and missile threat” at 51.1%. The percentage of respondents who selected climate change as one of their top two choices increased by 10.2 percentage points from 41.0% in 2023 to 51.2% in 2024. This increase can be interpreted as a result of more people perceiving real, tangible changes such as abnormal weather and heatwaves as threats.

 

● When asked about the most important diplomatic relations for South Korea (up to two choices allowed, the ROK-U.S. relationship overwhelmingly ranked at first at 75.1%, while inter-Korean relations ranked second at 52.6%, marking an 11.8 percentage point increase from 40.8% in the previous year. Meanwhile, ROK-China relationship was selected by 32.8%, showing a reverse trend with a 15.3 percentage point decrease from 48.1% in the previous year.

 

● Regarding which countries pose a military threat to South Korea (multiple answers allowed), North Korea ranked highest at 87.4%, followed by China at 63.7%, Russia at 44.8%, and Japan at 37.7%. The number of respondents identifying Russia as a military threat significantly increased from the previous year (19.9% → 44.8%).

 

● As for the future of South Korea, 54.0% of respondents expressed a pessimistic outlook, while only 32.1% held an optimistic view. The pessimistic outlook increased by 15.7 percentage points from 2023 (38.3%), while the optimistic outlook decreased by 19.8 percentage points from 2023 (51.9%).

 

[Threat to South Korea] What do you think are the biggest threats facing South Korea? [Up to 2 responses]

[Foreign Policy Priority] What should be the government’s highest priority in its foreign policy efforts?

[Key Diplomatic Relations] What do you think are the most important diplomatic relations for South Korea? [Up to 2 responses]

[Future Key Relationships] Looking ahead, which country or region do you believe will hold the most significant relationship with South Korea?

[Perceived Military Threat by Country or Region] Which countries or regions do you perceive as potential military threat to South Korea? [Select all that apply]

[Economically Important Country or Region] Which countries or regions do you consider particularly important for South Korea in terms of economic relations? [Select all that apply]

[Relative Feeling of Affinity: China vs. U.S.] Which country do you feel more affinity: China or the United States?

[Relative Feeling of Affinity: China vs. Japan] Which country do you feel more affinity: China or Japan?

[Prediction of the Future of South Korea] What do you think about the future of South Korea?

 

Ⅱ. Perception of the U.S. and ROK-U.S. Relations

Positive Impressions Driven by “Economic Opportunities” and “Shared Values”

 

● 71.7% of respondents had a "good impression" or "mostly good impression" of the United States. The reasons for the positive impression included "economic opportunities in the U.S. market" (47.6%) and "because the U.S. is a liberal democracy" (44.0%) (up to two responses allowed).

 

● On the other hand, respondents with a negative impression cited reasons such as "America-first policies and unilateral attitude" (59.4%) and "issues within U.S. society, such as racism, gun violence, and drug problems" (50.0%) (up to two responses allowed).

 

● Regarding President Biden, 50.9% of respondents had a positive impression of him, whereas 71.3% had a negative impression of former President Trump.

 

● When asked to assess the current U.S.-South Korea relations and their outlook for the future, the majority provided moderate responses: "average" (56.9%) for the current state and "it will stay the same" (63.3%) for future prospects. Optimistic views on both the current relationship and its future improvement dropped by more than 20 percentage points compared to 2023.

 

● Although trust in the U.S. as a reliable country fell by 12 percentage points from 2022 (85.1% → 73.1%), it remained high. The perception of the U.S.-South Korea economic relationship as complementary increased by 12.9 percentage points from 2023 (50.8% → 63.7%).

 

[Experience of Visiting the United States] Have you ever visited the United States?

[Purpose of Visiting the United States] What was the purpose of visiting the United States? [Multiple responses]

[Perception Change after Visiting the U.S.] Has your perception of the United States changed following your visit?

[Expectations to Visit the United States] Would you like to visit the United States if you had the chance?

[Impression of the United States] What is your impression of the United States?

[Reasons for Unfavorable Impressions] Why do you have an unfavorable impression of the United States? [Up to 2 responses]

[Reasons for Favorable Impressions] Why do you have a favorable impression of the United States? [Up to 2 responses]

[Impression of President Biden] What is your impression of Joe Biden, President of the United States?

[Impression of Former President Trump] What is your impression of Donald Trump, former President of the United States?

[Current ROK-U.S. Relations] What do you think current relations between South Korea and the U.S. are like?

[Importance of the ROK-U.S. Relations] Do you think the ROK-U.S. relations are currently important to South Korea?

[Future of the ROK-U.S. Relations] How do you envision the future ROK-U.S. relations?

[Reliability of the United States] Do you think the United States is a trustworthy partner of South Korea?

[Economic Relations Between South Korea and the U.S.] Regarding the economic relations between South Korea and the United States, which of the following statements do you agree with more: A or B?

A: The two economies are mutually complementary. / B: The two economies are mutually competitive.

 

Ⅲ. The Role of ROK-U.S. Alliance

A Call to Address Global Issues … Cautious Public Opinion on Keeping China in Check

 

● 77.8% agreed that the U.S.-South Korea alliance should develop beyond responding to North Korea and evolve into an alliance that addresses regional and global issues. This positive public opinion on expanding the scope of the alliance has been consistent, following 81.8% in 2023.

 

● When asked about specific roles within the U.S.-South Korea alliance, 74.3% supported South Korea's participation in U.S. efforts to protect maritime trade routes in the Indo-Pacific region. However, only 54.1% supported joint action with the U.S. if tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait, showing differing opinions depending on the issue.

 

● When asked about South Korea’s maximum level of involvement if military conflict arises in the Taiwan Strait with U.S. intervention, the largest share (44.2%) supported "humanitarian aid", while only 18.1% favored sending troops (whether non-combat or combat), and 9.1% felt South Korea should refrain from any involvement.

 

● Regarding the primary role U.S. troops in South Korea should play, "defending South Korea from North Korea" was the most cited (35.4%), followed by "maintaining peace in the East Asia region" (27.2%) and "responding to China’s military expansion" (14.2%). This indicates that while public opinion still prioritizes countering the North Korean military threat, there is also considerable openness to a peacekeeping role for U.S. forces in the broader East Asian region.

 

[Role of the ROK-U.S. Alliance] Do you agree with the following statement, or not?
"The ROK-U.S. alliance should work to address regional and global issues, extending its scope beyond merely responding to the North Korean military threat."

[South Korea’s Role in the ROK-U.S. Alliance] Within the framework of the ROK–U.S. alliance, do you support the following roles for South Korea?

1. Jointly respond with the U.S. in the event of escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
2. Support the U.S. policy of strongly countering China in the field of advanced technologies.
3. Support the U.S. policy of taking a firm stance against China’s human rights abuses.
4. Support the U.S. efforts to resolve international conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine.
5. Support the U.S. efforts to protect maritime shipping routes in the Indo-Pacific region.

[Importance of Taiwan Strait Conflict on South Korea] How important do you think tensions and conflicts in the Taiwan Strait are to South Korea’s national interests?

[Impact of Taiwan Strait Conflict on South Korea] In the event of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, what do you think would be the most serious impact on South Korea?

[Response of South Korea on Taiwan Strait Conflict] If a military conflict occurs in the Taiwan Strait and the U.S. intervenes militarily, to what extent do you think South Korea should respond?

[Role of U.S. Force Korea] The United States plans to flexibly manage its military assets in the Indo-Pacific region. What do you think should be the maximum role of U.S. Force Korea (USFK)?

[Opinion on the U.S. Limiting Economic Relations with China] What is your opinion on the United States imposing restrictions on South Korea’s and Japan’s trade and investment relations with China through measures like the CHIPS Act?

 

Ⅳ. Perception of China and ROK-China Relations

“Not Good, but Important”

 

● 63.9% of respondents had a negative impression of China, significantly outnumbering those with a positive impression (19.6%). The top reasons for negative impressions were "the impact of China's environmental issues" (44.2%), "China's disrespectful attitude toward South Korea" (39.4%), and "coercive actions like THAAD retaliation" (38.3%) (respondents could select up to two reasons).

 

● A majority of respondents (67.5%) also expressed a negative view of President Xi Jinping.

 

● In the case of the U.S. and Japan, over 70% of respondents said that visiting these countries either maintained or improved their positive impressions of them. However, visits to China had little impact on improving impressions, with only 51.8% saying their positive impression was maintained or improved after visiting.

 

● Regarding the current state of South Korea-China relations, 60.1% of respondents rated them as "bad," and the majority (60.4%) predicted that future relations would "remain the same.“

 

● Nevertheless, when asked whether South Korea-China relations are important, 85.9% responded that they are "important," indicating a continuation of last year's public sentiment of separating perceptions of China from the importance of bilateral relations.

 

[Experience of Visiting China] Have you ever visited China?

[Purpose of Visiting China] What was the purpose of visiting China? [Multiple responses]

[Perception Change after Visiting China] Has your perception of China changed following your visit?

[Expectations to Visit China] Would you like to visit China if you had the chance?

[Impression of China] What is your impression of China?

[Reasons for Unfavorable Impressions] Why do you have an unfavorable impression of China? [Up to 2 responses]

[Reasons for Favorable Impressions] Why do you have a favorable impression of China? [Up to 2 responses]

[Impression of President Xi Jinping] What is your impression of Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China?

[Current ROK-China Relations] What do you think current relations between South Korea and China are like?

[Importance of the ROK-China Relations] Do you think the ROK-China relations are currently important to South Korea?

[Future of the ROK-China Relations] How do you envision the future ROK-China relations?

[Reliability of China] Do you think China is a trustworthy partner of South Korea?

[Economic Relations Between South Korea and China] Regarding the economic relations between South Korea and China, which of the following statements do you agree with more: A or B?

A: The two economies are mutually complementary. / B: The two economies are mutually competitive.

 

Ⅴ. U.S.-China Competition and ROK’s Response

Public Opinion Split over Potential U.S.-China Conflict: “Support U.S.” vs. “Neutral”

 

● When asked about concerns regarding recent developments in China, the most common response was "China's coercive diplomatic behavior toward South Korea" (22.1%), followed by "conflicts with the U.S." (17.1%) and "distortion of Korean history and culture" (16.8%). While the percentages of the first two responses decreased compared to 2022, concerns over distortions of Korean history and culture, which ranked third, more than doubled from 6.8% in 2022, indicating a growing sense of unease among South Koreans regarding this issue.

 

● In the event of serious conflict between the U.S. and China, 46.8% of respondents favored South Korea taking a "neutral" stance, while 41.6% supported "backing the U.S." Only 2.9% believed that South Korea should support China.

 

● When asked about priority issues in South Korea's diplomacy toward China, the top response was "expanding economic exchanges and high-tech cooperation" (30.0%). This marks a shift from 2023, when "responding to China's economic sanctions" was the main concern, indicating a slightly more positive outlook on bilateral cooperation.

 

[Concerns about the Recent Developments in China] What concerns you the most about the recent developments in China?

[Whether China Will Surpass the United States] Do you believe China will surpass the United States and become a global leader in the near future?

[South Korea’s Position in U.S.-China Conflict] In the event of a serious U.S.-China conflict, what position should ROK adopt?

[Top Policy Priority toward China] What is South Korea's top policy priority toward China?

 

Ⅵ. Perception of North Korea and Inter-Korean Relations

Split Public Opinion on Credibility of U.S. Extended Deterrence … 71.4% Support “Nuclear Armament if DPRK Retains Nukes”

 

● An overwhelming 83.2% of respondents rated current inter-Korean relations as "bad," while only 1.3% said relations are "good." This reflects public perception of the strained relations caused by the introduction of DPRK’s "Two Hostile States rhetoric" and its actions, such as sending trash balloons.

 

● While 82.9% agreed that South Korea should maintain its goal of North Korean denuclearization, 72.0% expressed skepticism that North Korea would actually give up its nuclear weapons, indicating a predominantly negative outlook on the issue.

 

● When asked if the U.S. extended deterrence was sufficient in responding to North Korea's nuclear threat, opinions were split, with 41.2% agreeing and 47.4% disagreeing.

 

● If North Korea does not abandon its nuclear weapons, 71.4% of respondents believed that South Korea should pursue independent nuclear armament. Additionally, 34.8% supported the idea that Japan should also arm itself with nuclear weapons under such circumstances.

 

[Current inter-Korean Relations] What do you think current inter-Korean relations are like?

[Future Situation on the Korean Peninsula] How do you envision the situation on the Korean Peninsula ten years from now?

[Top Policy Priority toward North Korea] What is South Korea's top policy priority toward North Korea?

[North Korean Nuclear Weapons and Responses] To what extent do you agree with the following statements?

1. The goal of denuclearizing North Korea should be maintained.
2. North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons.
3. North Korea would use nuclear weapons preemptively against South Korea if necessary.
4. U.S. extended deterrence is sufficient to counter the North Korean nuclear threat.
5. South Korea should go nuclear if North Korea does not give up its nuclear weapons.
6. Japan should go nuclear if North Korea does not give up its nuclear weapons.

 

 

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■ Translated and edited by: Jisoo Park, Research Associate    

    For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr