Excerpts from EAI KOREAN PUBLIC OPINION REVIEW (2009 Feb. Survey)

Rising North Korean Threat Perception and Support for Korea-US Alliance

Since 2002, the EAI's Center for Public Opinion Research has been analyzing and assessing the Korean public's opinion on various security issues such as the Korea-U.S. alliance and the North Korean nuclear crisis. In February 2009, within the context of the recent inauguration of the Obama administration as well as the current crisis over North Korean potential missile launch, the Center set out to understand and interpret the Korean public's opinion on these key issues of the Korea-U.S. alliance and the U.S. leadership in the world. The following are important findings.

The leading characteristic in the U.S.-Korea alliance is that as the security situation becomes more uncertain, Koreans' support for the alliance increases. In this respect, as the intensity of the North Korean nuclear crisis increased, the rate of support for the alliance increased. Conversely, when North-South Korean relations went through a period of detente, we see a decrease in the support for the alliance.

Figure1) Concerns on National Security / Public Support for Korea-US Alliance since 2000

Data: Hankyoreh Shinmun (2000), EAI · JoongAngIlbo (2002), EAI · CCFR (2004), BBC · GlobeScan · EAI · Maeil Business Newspaper, Global Issue Monitor international survey(2006-2007), EAI · Hankook Research, Public Opinion Survey in the first Anniversary of Lee's Presidential Inauguration(2009 Feb. 21)

Looking at Figure 1, we can see that after 2002 (at the height of anti-American sentiment after the incident where two Korean schoolgirls were run over and killed by a US Army vehicle) until the peak of the nuclear crisis in 2006, as the responses concerning on national security increased from 18.9% to 63.8%, support for the alliance increased from 32.0% to 48.8%. Concerns on national security was measured by the percentage of respondents who ed 4 to 5 on the 1-5 scale (1 being 'not concerned at all', 5 being 'concerned a great deal', and 3 being neither 'concerned' nor 'not concerned') Alliance support was measured by the percentage of respondents who marked from 6 to 10 on the 0-10 scale (0 being 'strongest support for being independent of the U.S. influence', 10 being 'strongest support for strengthening the Korea-U.S. alliance' while 5 being 'middle of the road'). However, the following year, as the relations with North Korea improved, support for the alliance ped to 34.9%. Currently, as North-South Korean relations are strained over the prospect of North Korea's missile test, there is an increase in the support for the alliance, which stands at 43.7% as of Feb. survey. The results clearly show that as the security threat increases the need for the bilateral alliance is more strongly felt. In this way, it is perceived as the safety valve in deterring the North Korean threat.

Looking at public opinion polls from 2004 to 2006, Koreans' evaluation of American global leadership decreased while its support for the alliance increased as the North Korean nuclear crisis deteriorated. Figure 2 indicates that the percentage of people who believe that the U.S. plays a positive role in the world has declined steadily from 51.9% in 2004, to 44.4% in 2005 and then to 35.3% in 2006. From this we can see that the Korean public did not show much confidence in U.S. leadership. Yet they did offer "conditional support" to the bilateral alliance due to the overwhelming security interests in deterring the North Korean threat.

Figure 2) Korean Public's Positive Evaluation of the U.S. and China's International Role (%)

Data: BBC · GlobeScan · EAI · Maeil Business Newspaper, Global Issue Monitor international survey (2004-2007) EAI · Hankook Research, Public Opinion Survey in the first Anniversary of Lee's Presidential Inauguration (2009 Feb.21)

Since 2007 Koreans have been changing their views on American leadership in the world. Up until 2006, the support for the Korea-U.S. alliance stressed upon "security interests." However we see that the current support is based upon confidence in America's international leadership. Growing confidence in American leadership is a phenomenon that appears not only in Korea but also across the world. It should be noted that during the Bush administration's second term, the previous unilateral policies slowly diminished following immense criticism. Then during the recent presidential campaign, President Obama made pledges to reverse the Bush administration's unilateral diplomatic policies. In Figure 2, starting from 2006, as American leadership recovered public confidence, the positive evaluation of America's international role rose to 49.8% in December 2007 survey. In the February 2009 survey conducted after the inauguration of Obama administration, the positive evaluation of America's international role rose up to 57.4%. From this we can infer that the strengthened support of the U.S.-Korea alliance of today is helped by the Korean public perception of positive leadership in the world.

Questions

Korea-U.S. Alliance "We would like to ask your view on desirable Korea-U.S. relationship. On a scale from 0 to 10, give 0 if you support 'independent from U.S. influence', 10 if you support 'strengthened Korea-U.S. alliance', and 5 if you support 'middle of the road'. You can choose any number from 0 to 10."

Concerns on National Security "How much are you concerned about Korean national security of today? On a scale from 1 to 5, give 1 if you 'aren't concerned at all', 5 if you are 'concerned a great deal,' and 3 if you are 'neither concerned nor not concerned'. You can choose any number from 1 to 5."

Evaluation of the U.S. and China's International Role "Please tell me if you think U.S. [China] is having a mainly positive or mainly negative influence in the world."

Written by Hanwool Jeong and Wonchil Chung at EAI's Center for Public Opinion Research

Translated by Eun Hae Choi and Stephen Ranger with help of Jasmine Begin Marchand, Hyong Tak Son, Jayne Jungsun Yoo, and Eunice Kang