Author

Seongho Sheen is an associate professor at the Graduate Schools of International Studies, Seoul National University.

Abstract

Following the rapid economic development of Asian countries in the footsteps of Japan, there has been much controversy on the future political-military order of the region. Disputes on history and territory and the rise of nationalism in the region, combined with the lack of any inter-state conflict-mediating mechanism have created an environment of intense security competition. In particular, the rise of China and an emerging arms race will further deepen the security dilemma among China, Japan, and South Korea. Northeast Asian international politics in the twenty-first century though will remain susceptible to both the existent power and new factors. Among these new factors, the rapidly changing population structure in the twentieth century will influence society and culture as well as political and military relations. The increasing low birth rate and rapid aging population demographics in China, Japan, and South Korea will slow economic growth while placing a great burden to provide social welfare. A side effect of this will be the slowing down of the arms race in the region. China, Japan, and South Korea will be so financially burdened by the increasing social welfare costs that they will not be able to sustain any increases in funding military expenditures. Although the impact of an aging population will not automatically guarantee security in Northeast Asia, it will remain a powerful drive by which the three countries could work toward a political compromise that will guarantee their security.

The full text in Korean is available here