Author

Dongho Jo, Ewha Womans University; East Asia Institute

Sung-bae Kim, Institute for National Security Strategy

Abstract

The Kim Jong-un regime is, for the short term, considered stable and perceived to be closely imitating the leadership style of his grandfather Kim Il-sung. The Leap Day Deal and the subsequent satellite launch in April 2012 were two contradicting signals that show the regime is still undecided in its foreign relations. For the long term, the regime will likely side with China while at the same time maintaining its equidistant diplomacy regarding bilateral relations between China-U.S., China-Russia, and China-South Korea. Considering the incompatibility of China’s primary focus on economic development with North Korea’s military-first politics, the Kim Jong-un regime will likely experience difficulties in upholding its nuclear politics. Therefore, South Korea and neighboring states need to pursue a strategy of convolution for the long run to facilitate the transition of the Kim Jong-un regime from military-first politics reliant upon nuclear weapons to a denuclearized economy-first politics. South Korea, in particular, needs to plan for a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula in response to the regional mechanism initiated by the China and the United States. Above all, the future policy toward North Korea should included elements of realism, defensive and offensive liberalism, and constructivism which will contribute toward formulating a complex policy.

The full text in Korean is available here