Abstract 

The rise of China and the change in its relationship with the United States has a greater influence on the Korean Peninsula than in the global or regional (East Asia) spheres. This will be particularly felt in the case of the U.S-ROK alliance, the North Korean nuclear crisis, and the peace building process in Northeast Asia. As a result the security order that has existed on the Korean Peninsula since the end of the Cold War relying upon a unipolar United States might face fundamental change. It will be necessary to analyze the local security environment on the Korean Peninsula under a new global and regional order.

To begin with, the U.S.-ROK alliance has been expanding its role in line with the Obama administration’s National Security Strategy 2010 and the U.S.-ROK Joint Vision Statement. While promoting the “Koreanization” of South Korea’s defense on the Korean Peninsula through adjustments in the U.S.-ROK alliance, the United States has been encouraging Korea’s active participation by also expanding the role of the alliance in the global sphere. In this respect, the United States is pursuing a new notion of alliance to achieve strategic flexibility that it has been striving for since the end of the Cold War. On the other hand, China has been trying to alter the U.S.-ROK alliance with its own political, military, and economic tools. By strengthening its relations with Seoul, Beijing is seeking to bring South Korea out of its Cold War-structured alliance. Therefore South Korea now faces the burden of deciding how to restructure its alliance with the United States and its relationship with China.

The North Korean nuclear crisis has been intensifying as the Six-Party Talks remains stalled and the problems of instability continue to surround the leadership succession presently ongoing in North Korea. However, the issue of North Korea has also become a source of division within U.S.-China relations amidst power transition. The United States has chosen to manage the North Korean nuclear crisis in the global sphere rather than on the Korean Peninsula as manifested through its policy of “strategic patience.” This also extends to the future of the North Korean regime which the United States is content to wait out rather than actively press for change. On the other side, China has continued to exert pressure to restart the Six-Party Talks in order to stabilize the situation. It also seeks to preserve stability within the North Korean system in order to create a “buffer zone” that will protect China’s own economic growth. Through its unique economic leverage over North Korea, China is stabilizing the situation there and in this way backs the North Korean regime’s process of hereditary leadership succession that is currently ongoing. The way in which the North Korean issue became the focus of U.S-China rivalry was very evident with the sinking of the Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. These events are connected to the geopolitical power shift that has been going on in the region.

The security environment on the Korean Peninsula has been part of the debate on the possibility of establishing a Northeast Asian peace order. The debate on the building of a peace regime in the Korean Peninsula are linked to the search for a new peace order in Northeast Asia based on the changes in U.S.-China and China-Japan relations including the U.S.-Japan alliance. China cannot engage in military competition with the United States, therefore it will have to extend further cooperation for its own economic development and stability. This will become evident in China’s Northeast Asian networking strategy. Japan is also placing a greater emphasis on Asia after restructuring the U.S.-Japan relationship that took place following its long term economic recession, changes in domestic politics, and its weakening power in Northeast Asia. This is not merely due to the Democratic Party of Japan’s coming to power in 2009, but an unavoidable strategic decision considering Japan’s weak economic situation. Amidst such changes in Northeast Asia’s international relations and its geopolitical location between China and Japan, South Korea will have to carefully craft its strategic options. A degree of change will be expected to be dramatic in Northeast Asia’s security environment from 2012, which is when presidential elections will take place in both South Korea and the United States, while in China there will be a shift in leadership.

The full text in Korean is available here