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Editor's Note

On November 13, 2020, the EAI and Brookings institution jointly held the 2nd online seminar of the series titled "Prospects for U.S.-South Korea Cooperation in an Era of U.S.-China Strategic Competition". In session 1: politics and security, Chaesung Chun and Young-Sun Ha addressed that as the US-China strategic competition gradually shifts toward a hegemonic challenge, South Korea’s North Korea strategies are faced with increasing difficulties. The Biden administration's foreign policy will focus on strengthening diplomacy based on legitimacy and norms. There is no doubt that South Korea’s strategic purpose is in line with the US. However, South Korea still depends on China, and there is a pending issue of North Korea. Therefore, this must be considered when planning the ways to maintain the alliance-based network between the US and South Korea. For South Korea, it is necessary to strengthen the security sys-tem, among regional alliances, but the key is how to collectively respond to China’s retaliation and minimize damage in the future, as the country has already experienced from THAAD issue. Taking this situation into account, the carefully designed package to continue regional alliance network in Asia and to strategically response to the rise of China.  This includes flexible security network, a solid collective mechanism to respond to China’s potential retaliatory measures, and China’s coercion, and well devised division of labor in jointly responding and cooperating with Asian allies.

Quotes from the Paper

US-China Strategic Rivalry and the US strategy                  

These days China, in US strategic thinking, is perceived as pursuing hegemonic power not only in Asia, but also globally. Anti-Chinese sentiment following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has fueled this opinion. China’s relatively quick economic recovery adds to the concern over the rise of China. Chinese intrusions into major disputed territories including the South China Sea are in-creasing, and China continues to expand its global presence by supplying global public goods in many areas especially for global health. Challenges posed by China today make the US more nerv-ous than during the 2008 Financial Crisis. During the campaign years for the presidential election, the US China policy has been heavily politicized and is emerging as an important electoral agenda with other overwhelming domestic political issues.

South Korea’s position and the future of cooperation with the United States

As South Korea’s critical interests lie in inter-Korean reconciliation and peace with complete denu-clearization of North Korea and South Korea’s economic development influenced by close interde-pendence with China, the US-China rivalry puts South Korea in a very difficult position.

North Korea’s Strategy after the Hanoi summit 2019

After the Honoi no deal in February, 2019, North Korea has searched for a new strategy to further its position both domestically and in dealing with the United States and south Korea. North Korea’s speeches and actions since the breakdown of the February 2019 Hanoi Summit should be interpret-ed from a perspective that encompasses North Korea's survival strategy based on its three revolu-tionary capabilities. Chairman Kim Jong-Un, at the First session of the Fourteenth Supreme People’s Assembly, gave a policy speech under the title of “On Socialist Construction and the Internal and External Policies of the Government of the Republic at the Present Stage,” which adhered to the basic principles of the three revolutionary capabilities.

North Korea in 2020, and the future task of South Korea and the United States

North Korea’s effort to break through the impasse in 2019 is facing an even more difficult phase with the global spread of COVID-19 in 2020. It faces practical limitations in increasing its domestic and international capabilities. The improvement in inter-Korean relations over the past two years was expected to contribute to the strengthening of its domestic and international capabilities but has failed to yield any significant developments. North Korea even blew up the Inter-Korean Liason Office, which was built under the auspices of the Panmunjom Declaration of April 27, 2018.

The Prospect of North Korea’s denuclearization under the Biden administration and South Korea’s tasks

Given these backdrop, North Korea policy of the next US Biden administration is likely to be very critical for the future negotiation for denuclearization of the North. Biden’s approach, so far, can be summarized as follows: first, principled pragmatism which will be the guiding line for bottom-up approach with North Korea will prevail; second, cooperation with South Korea and other East Asian allies will be essential in accomplishing denuclearization of North Korea; third, to prevent further development of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities is important with a view to the ultimate purpose of complete denuclearization; and fourth, human rights in North Korea will be an essential concern for the Biden administration.

Author’s Biograph

Young-Sun Ha is chairman of the board of trustees of the East Asia Institute. He is also a profes-sor emeritus at Seoul National University’s department of political science and international relations. Ha currently serves as a member of the senior advisory group for the Inter-Korean Summit Talks Preparation Committee. He also served as a member of the Presidential National Security Advisory Group, co-chairman of Korea-Japan Joint Research Project for New Era, president of the Korea Peace Studies Association, and research fellow at Princeton University’s Center for International Studies and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. His recent books and edited vol-umes include A New Perspective on the Diplomatic History of Korea, World Politics of Love: War and Peace, U.S.-China Competition in the Architecture of a Regional Order in the Asia-Pacific; Korean Peninsula Among Big Powers: 1972 vs. 2014, Complex World Politics: Strategies, Principles, and a New Order, The Future of North Korea 2032: The Strategy of Coevolution for the Advancement, The Emergence of Complex Alliances in the 21st Century, and A New Era of Complex Networks in Korea-Japan Relations. He received his BA and MA from Seoul National University and his PhD from the University of Washington.

Chaesung Chun is the Chair of the National Security Research Center at the East Asia Institute, and a Professor of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University. Dr. Chun received his PhD in international relations at Northwestern University in the United States, and serves on the policy advisory committee to the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Unification. His main research interests include international political theory, the ROK-US alliance, and Korean Peninsular affairs. He is the co-author of The Korean War: Threat and Peace, and the author of a number of publications including Are Politics Moral and Internation-al Politics in East Asia: History and Theory.