Kurt M. Campbell is Chairman and CEO of The Asia Group, Chairman of CNAS and a Director for Standard Chartered Bank. From 2009-2013, he was Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. Dr. Campbell has recently been awarded the Gwanghwa Medal by the Republic of Korea for his contributions to the U.S.-South Korea bilateral alliance.

Chaesung Chun is the Chair of the Asia Security Initiative Research Center at East Asia Institute. He is also a professor at the department of political science and international relations at Seoul National University.

Summary

Dr. Kurt Campbell, the former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs and the key architect of ‘the U.S. pivot to Asia’ strategy was interviewed by Dr. Chaesung Chun, chair of the Asia Security Initiative Research Center, regarding issues on North Korea and the regional dynamics in East Asia. During the discussion, Dr. Campbell warned the danger of North Korea’s potential for miscalculation and pointed out the need to find ways for dialogue, including close consultation with China. With respect to East Asian regional dynamics, Dr. Campbell suggested that it is a mistaken notion that the rise of China would only induce a rivalry between China and America, thus imposing on other regional members to ‘pick sides.’ In fact, the U.S. would welcome developments toward improved relations with both the U.S. and China, and would also like to see an improvement of China-Japan relations. With respect to the Korean Peninsula, Dr. Campbell asserted that the U.S. commitment in East Asia would continue even after unification has been achieved.

“North Korea could inadvertently miscalculate, and trigger the type of crisis they seek to avoid. […] They are finding it more difficult to figure out exactly where that line is.”

“It is very clear that neither the United States nor China is expecting – or asking – countries to chose ‘one or the other’. And I think sustaining relationships with both is in the best interests of countries in Asia as a whole.”

North Korea’s Strategic Calculations

• Despite the fact that the North Korean regime is inherently unpredictable, we should recognize that their actions, including provocations, are based on delicate calculation.

• The North Korean regime understands that causing a full-scale conflict on the Korean peninsula would necessitate their collapse and therefore it is not in their strategic interest to escalate.

• Even though the North Korean regime would not want to have an escalated conflict, its recent behavior suggests that the possibility for miscalculation is increasing, which makes the situation more dangerous and worrisome. 

• Given that North Korea has become increasingly dependent on China, South Korea should continue to pursue dialogue with Beijing and create opportunities to dispel certain myths about what they think the United States or other countries would do in a crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

Regional Dynamics and Future of Unification: U.S.-China Relations in Northeast Asia

• The alliance between the U.S. and South Korea has never been stronger. Nonetheless, the future relationship between a unified Korea and the U.S. will ultimately be up to the Korean people.

• Countries that are the most effective in Asia are the countries which have good relationships with both China and the U.S.—neither Beijing nor Washington expects countries to choose one side at the expense of the other.

• In accordance with its ‘pivot’ or the rebalance strategy, the U.S. commitment in the region would continue, while it is true that we must have the wit and wisdom to find the time and attention to focus on what is going to be the dominant issues in the twenty first century. For the U.S., the Asia-Pacific represents the future and this perspective is being increasingly recognized by the government, congress, and the business community as well.

• For the U.S. to stay out from tensions between South Korea and Japan, or Japan with China runs the risk of alienating its allies and partners in Northeast Asia. Therefore the U.S. should send a strong message that signals its desire for improved South Korea-Japan and China-Japan relations.

• Rising nationalism in Asia will render cooperation much more difficult in the region. Each country, including South Korea, should take note of this concerning trend and seek ways to mitigate its negative outcomes...(Continued)   

Through the Smart Q&A, East Asia Institute (EAI) seeks to offer timely and in-depth analysis on current issues by conducting video interviews with domestic and international experts. EAI takes no institutional position on what is said in the interviews and they are solely the position of the interviewees. This report was prepared by Young-jin Ho and Mael Alan van Beek and edited by Boram Shin and Jaesung Ryu. Please use the correct reference when citing the contents of this interview.