Author

Byung Kwang Park, Institute for National Security Strategy

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and predict U.S.-China relations on energy issues, which remains a contentious issue between the two states as they strive for global leadership. Over the next ten to twenty years, conflict and competition on energy between the United States and China will be fierce because of structural limitations. As yet though, it is still not easy to determine whether the assertive energy security policies and subsequent aggressive efforts for securing energy resources of the two countries will lead to a zero sum game. This is due to the fact that U.S.-China relations have the potential for compromise and cooperation as well as competition and confrontation. The United States and China share common interests in maintaining a reasonable price of oil, securing sea lines of communication, and a stable international political and economic environment. Moreover, the two countries can strengthen the strategic framework on new energy development.

A new paradigm though is necessary in the “technical”' and “normative” areas that will help to stem the current energy hegemonic competition. First, a new energy resource development is required to help replace the dependency on fossil fuels through the use of renewable and alternative energy sources. In addition, China's energy diplomacy needs to be aligned with international norms. Beijing also needs to exercise caution in its energy exchange with what the international community including the United States defines as “rogue states” as this can result in growing distrust and therefore heighten the chances for conflict.

The international community should also maintain cooperation with China rather than consider its aggressive energy diplomacy as a strategic challenge. Furthermore, in order to prevent confrontations over energy issues, the international community should also engage China so that it could embrace the norms of the international community. In this way, the ongoing energy competition between the United States and China will eventually allow for a new form of strategic cooperation between the two countries.

The full text in Korean is available here