Abstract

This paper seeks to provide an overview on major issues in the South China Sea. Following the introductory section, a summary of the Philippines arbitration case against China which was convened before a tribunal in The Hague under the UNCLOS treaty is provided. Next a description of US freedom of navigation operations and their objective is given. In the final section the policy recommendations of American scholars, specifically those in the top US think-tanks, are summarized, and descriptions of possible Chinese government reactions to these policies is provided. Based on these summaries, it is possible to understand how events may unfold in the region in the near-future depending on the strategic decision the US government makes regarding tactics such as freedom of navigation operations or increased military support to allies and partners in the region.

Quotes from the Paper

"A popular view is that a positive ruling for the Philippines will push China to compromise or, if China defies the tribunal’s decision, suffer a significant loss in soft power. Additionally, with China’s public declaration that they will ignore the tribunal’s ruling, other claimants in the dispute are likely to gravitate closer to Washington."

"The outcome of the upcoming arbitration case against China brought up by the Philippines under the UNCLOS treaty will help clarify the intricacies behind FON operations, which will allow the US to argue that its FON operations are legally permissible by international law. This would in turn help garner support for FON operations from the international community and encourage other key players in Asia to carry out their own FON operations in the SCS as well"

"The vast majority of scholars at numerous US think tanks agree that, in response to the tribunal verdict, the Philippines and the US should react with prudence and caution while seeking a peaceful resolution through talks with China—all in hopes of persuading China to recognize the legitimacy of the ruling and ultimately achieve de-escalation of regional tensions."

Author

Benjamin A. Engel is a research associate at the East Asia Institute and a Ph.D. candidate in East Asian Studies at Seoul National University’s Graduate School of International Studies where he is focusing on modern Korean history with a particular interest in ROK-US relations. Thomas Burkhalter is an intern at the East Asia Institute and a graduate student at the University of California - San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy where he is focusing on international economics and management as well as Japanese and Korean area studies. Seunghwa Madeleine Han is an intern at the East Asia Institute and an undergraduate student at Stanford University where she is majoring in International Relations and English. Jordan Marks is an intern at the East Asia Institute and is also a graduate student at the University of California - San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy where he is focusing on international economics, international development, non-profit management, and Korean studies.