Author

Dong Ryul Lee, Dongduk Women’s University

Bonggyo Seo, DongDuk Women’s University

Abstract

Under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), political reforms in China are expected to be very gradual and limited and it is unlikely that there will be significant changes or an abrupt transformation in Chinese politics. Instead, China will continue to maintain its flexible authoritarianism while defending the “fragile stability” for a period of time. In other words, China will be justified in maintaining its flexible authoritarianism so long as it provides economic growth, social welfare, administrative efficiency, and strong performances in its foreign affairs. The CCP must also boost nationalism at home while at the same time sustain its rule through strict internal surveillance.

Such gradual reforms though reveal the limitations in fundamentally tackling the current internal difficulties facing China. Despite the unlikely chance of any imminent threat to the regime, social turmoil and instability are likely to become worse since laborers, farmers, and the underprivileged have no outlet for any grievances they hold. Furthermore, delaying discussions on political reforms because economic growth has remained steady will only place a greater burden on the Party in the future.

The Chinese economy will unlikely face the risk of economic slowdown, but it still must confront the task of enlarging domestic consumption, reducing social polarization, and regulating inflation to a reasonable level. In addition, variables in foreign relations remain a potential for crisis. Despite these immense challenges, China possesses a diverse pool of potential, and if it overcomes such difficulties successfully will experience significant economic growth for a period of time.

China is in the midst of a number of political and economic challenges, the root cause of which will continue to remain unresolved for the next ten years. However, the CCP has demonstrated a strong capability to prevent them from the emerging as regime-threatening factors. The CCP’s strong will to meet the challenges they are facing and continued effort to accomplish a peaceful rise will be maintained for at least the next ten years. The question is how the South Korean government will make best use of this crucial period to enhance its strategic value not only for Washington but also for Beijing.

The full text in Korean is available here