Asians Comfortable With Rising China, But Still Want U.S. in Region Despite Low Trust; Americans See China Catching Up With U.S. Economically But Don't Favor Trying to Stop It
WASHINGTON, D.C. – October 11, 2006 – Despite ongoing concern over the war in Iraq and the threat of terrorism, Americans continue to support U.S. international engagement, according to a new U.S. and international public opinion study released today by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs (founded as The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations).
Other key survey findings include:
"The survey findings couldn’t be clearer -- Americans do not want to retreat to an isolationist foreign policy," said Marshall M. Bouton, President of The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. "Americans understand that China and India are rising economic and political forces and want the U.S. government to choose engagement."
The study, which the Council conducts biennially, was conducted in partnership with the Asia Society. In addition to polling in the United States, the study included groundbreaking in-depth nationally representative polls of China and India as well as parallel surveys in South Korea done in conjunction with the East Asia Institute, and in Australia in conjunction with the Lowy Institute on International Policy.
Strong American Commitment to Internationalism
While many observers have anticipated a move towards isolationism in the wake of America’s difficulties in Iraq, this does not appear to be the case. Americans are frustrated about Iraq: majorities say that the war has not reduced the threat of terrorism (61 percent), that it will not lead to the spread of democracy in the Middle East (64 percent), that the war has worsened America’s relations with the Muslim world (66 percent), and that the experience should make the U.S. more cautious about using military force in the future (66 percent).
Nonetheless, 69 percent say that the U.S. should play an active part in the world—unchanged from 2004. On a variety of questions ranging from support for having military bases overseas to the types of goals Americans support for U.S. foreign policy, there is no indication of any new isolationist reaction.
Three out of four worry that the U.S. plays the role of world policeman more than it should, but equally large numbers support various forms of international engagement for the U.S., especially ones that involve multilateral action.
Among foreign policy priorities, only 17% of Americans describe spreading democracy abroad as a very important foreign policy goal, ranking last of a list of 12 foreign policy priorities.
Scoring substantially higher were the goals of protecting American jobs (76% very important), which continues to be the single most identified objective, preventing the spread of nuclear weapons (74 percent), fighting international terrorism (72 percent) and securing adequate energy supplies (72 percent).
The Rise of China and India
In both China and India, the public view their countries as important and rising powers. In China, a very large majority is enthusiastic about playing an active role in world affairs (87 percent) and 9 in 10 favor China becoming more powerful economically and militarily.
Chinese see themselves as the second greatest power in the world today and becoming the equal of the U.S. within ten years. Seventy eight percent see their governmental structure as an economic advantage
In India, most also would like to see their country play a greater role in world affairs than it currently does (56 percent favor an active role), although Indians are less ambitious about this than the Chinese. A majority of Indians also welcome stronger economic and military roles for their country (63 percent and 65 percent), but not as enthusiastically as the Chinese.
Majorities in all surveyed countries believe that at some future point the U.S. will be either equaled or surpassed by another country in power. Sixty one percent of Americans believe that China will ultimately catch up with the U.S. economically as do 60 percent of South Koreans and 50 percent of Chinese. Indians are more doubtful (just 22 percent).
But Americans also seem to accept the rise of China: 54 percent think it would be equally positive and negative if China’s economy became as large as the U.S. economy and only 29 percent say that the U.S. should actively work to limit the growth of China’s power. Sixty five percent favor friendly cooperation and engagement with China.
Americans, however, distinguish clearly between rising Chinese economic power, with which they are comfortable, and military power, with which they are less comfortable (75 percent believe it would be mainly negative if China became significantly more powerful militarily). Eighty-eight percent of Americans and South Koreans and 72 percent of Indians think the growth of Chinese military power will be a potential source of conflict between major powers in Asia.
Even as China is perceived as rising, the U.S. is still considered the most important player in the world today and for the near future. While Asians would like to see U.S. influence reduced somewhat, they still want the U.S. to play a major role in the Asia and in the world as a whole. However, only 35 percent of Chinese and 39 percent of Indians trust the U.S. to act responsibly in the world
Global Challenges
Americans and Asians show substantial concern about climate change. Growing numbers of Americans (46 percent) see global warming as a critical threat to U.S. vital interests, up 9 percent since 2004, and Americans show increased readiness to take steps to deal with global warming even if there are significant costs.
Chinese and Indians also express readiness to limit the growth of their greenhouse gas emissions and to require enforcement of environmental standards as part of trade agreements.
All countries polled show remarkably high levels of support for a number of steps to strengthen the UN, including giving it the authority to investigate human rights violations, creating a marshal service to arrest leaders accused of genocide, giving it the power to regulate the international arms trade and maintaining its own standing peacekeeping force.
All countries polled also believe Iran is developing nuclear weapons and are concerned but no country favors taking military action without UN approval (only 18% of Americans favor a military strike even if the U.S. has to act on its own).
The potential for disruption in energy supply ranks near the top of the list of critical threats in all countries surveyed except India. Securing adequate supplies of energy is also considered a very important foreign policy goal by majorities in all these countries.
Americans, South Koreans, Chinese and Indians say competition over vital energy resources like oil and gas will be a somewhat or very likely source of conflict between major powers in Asia in the future.
On human rights, most Americans, Indians and Chinese think the UN Security Council should have the right to authorize force to prevent severe human rights violations such as genocide. And all agree that the U.N. Security Council has the responsibility to intervene in the Darfur region of the Sudan. Americans also indicate they are willing to use U.S. troops to stop genocide and deal with humanitarian crises, including Darfur.
For more information on this survey, please visit www.thechicagocouncil.org.
About The Chicago Council on Global Affairs
The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, founded in 1922 as The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, is a leading independent, nonpartisan organization committed to influencing the discourse on global issues through contributions to opinion and policy formation, leadership dialogue, and public learning.
The Chicago Council recently announced its plans to greatly expand its contributions to opinion and policy making on issues of national and international importance, and changed its name to "The Chicago Council on Global Affairs" to reflect this increased range and relevance.
Rob Miller and Burson-Marsteller, Chicago Council of Global Affairs