WASHINGTON - While the world views of both South Koreans and Americans are remarkably similar, they also differ on key issues that could pose serious future problems in their otherwise warm views toward each other, according to unprecedented parallel surveys.
Sponsored by the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations and the East Asia Institute of South Korea, the surveys found that the United States public may be far less prepared to support US military intervention in the event of a North Korean attack on the South than most South Koreans believe they are.
They also found that a larger percentage of South Koreans cited "US unilateralism" as a "critical threat" to the South's vital interests than "the rise of Japanese military power" or the emergence of "China as a world power."
Not surprisingly, South Koreans tend to see North Korea significantly more warmly than Americans, whose feelings are by far the lowest in a sample of some 20 nations that included France, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, and "Muslim people."
The joint surveys, which were conducted this summer on representative nationwide samples of both countries, posed a series of detailed questions designed to ascertain the global outlook of the general public in both countries, as well as their views of particular issues.
The survey, entitled "Global Views 2004: Comparing South Korean and American Public Opinion and Foreign Policy," notes that ties between the two allies have recently entered a "crucial period" that has tested the durability and strength of the relationship, particularly in relation to the two countries' different approaches to Pyongyang"s nuclear program.
While the current government of President Roh Moo-hyun has persisted in pursuing former president Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine Policy" toward the North, the administration of US President George W Bush, breaking with his predecessor, Bill Clinton, has awarded Pyongyang charter membership in the "axis of evil" and has, until very recently anyway, rejected Seoul's appeals for Washington to be more forthcoming in the so-called "six-party talks" with the North.
At the same time, the Pentagon's plans to redeploy US forces around the globe and in East Asia, including the withdrawal of one third of its 37,000 troops from South Korea by the end of next year and the pullback of US troops from the Demilitarized Zone where they have acted as a potential "trip-wire" against a North Korean attack for the past 50 years, have also created some new anxieties about the future strategic relationship.
Despite these sore points, however, the survey found that the two nations' publics share similar world views in terms of global engagement, threat perception, and Washington"s role in the region and the world.
Both publics are outward looking, with a resounding 83% of Koreans and a smaller two-thirds of Americans saying that their countries should be actively engaged in and informed about their countries" relations with others. Strong majorities in both countries also favor providing aid to developing countries.
Both publics show concern about the US playing a dominant role in the world, with 74% of Koreans and 80% of Americans complaining that "the US is playing the role of world policeman more than it should."
Similar heavy majorities (83% for South Korea and 78% for the US) believe that their country should take part in UN peacekeeping forces if asked, a particularly notable finding, according to the survey's analysts, citing the much more hesitant endorsement of South Korea's participation in the US-led military occupation in Iraq.
In terms of "critical threats" faced by each nation, both publics ranked "international terrorism" and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction - in Korea's case, North Korea's becoming a nuclear power and infectious diseases as their top-ranked concerns, although the acuteness of such fears appeared greater among US respondents.
From that point, however, their perception of threats largely diverge, with half of Korean respondents identifying "US unilateralism" as a critical threat, followed by global warming (48%), the rise of Japanese military power (47%), China as a world power (46%), and economic competition from low-wage countries (29%) for South Korea. On the US side, the major threats included fears of immigration (52%), Israeli-Arab military conflict (39%), Islamic fundamentalism (38%), global warming (37%), and low-wage economic competition (35%), and the rise of China as a world power (33%).
The survey found that South Koreans were more restrained than Americans about the use of military, and especially nuclear, power. While only 4% of Americans said the US should never resort to war, 30% of Koreans took that position. South Koreans were also considerably less inclined to accept pre-emptive war. Sixty percent of Koreans said the US should never use nuclear weapons under any circumstances; only 22% of Americans took that position.
South Koreans tend to look more favorably on globalization than Americans, with 81% describing its impact as "good" for their country, compared to less than two-thirds of Americans.
The survey found that two-thirds of South Koreans favor the creation of a European Union (EU)-type community with China and Japan but excluding the US, a result that the survey"s analysts attributed in part to the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. In addition, while only 28% of South Koreans said Washington practiced fair trade with them, Americans were much more positive about Seoul"s trade practices; 49% said South Korea practiced fair trade with the US.
On the other hand, Koreans feel more warmly toward the US than the other way around. Asked to rate the temperature of feelings toward different countries on a 1-100 point "thermometer", respondents in both countries rated Britain highest, but for the South Koreans, the US and China tied at 58 degrees each. US respondents, on the other hand, rated South Korea at a significantly cooler 49 degrees, behind Germany, Mexico, and Israel, and just ahead of France. On the other hand, both groups of respondents rated Cuba and "Muslim people" in comparably low positions on the thermometer.
Despite recent changes in the bilateral security relationship, South Koreans remain generally remarkably positive about Washington"s role on the peninsula. One of the most surprising findings of the South Korean poll was that, while 31% of Koreans believe relations have gotten worse since Roh Moo-hyun became president in 2002, a majority of 54% believe there has been no change, and 15% say ties have improved.
South Koreans see the US as having an extraordinary level of influence on South Korean policy, rating Washington ahead of President Roh, their National Assembly, and the general public itself.
Moreover, the survey found that the South Koreans do not appear to want a change in the relationship. Asked to describe the most desirable bilateral policy on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 meaning total independence and 5 the status quo, the mean response was 5. Moreover, a majority of 59% said they wanted to retain or strengthen the alliance with the US after reunification of the peninsula.
Nearly four out of five South Koreans view the US as either "significantly" or "a bit" beneficial to South Korea"s security, compared to 12% who see Washington as either "a bit" or "significantly" threatening.
When asked which of five countries or groups of countries South Korea should most cooperate with, 53% of South Koreans said the US, followed by China (24%), the EU (10%), Japan (4%), and Russia (1%). "Many had thought recently that South Korean public opinion had tilted decisively towards China, a belief that is clearly refuted by the results on this question," according to the survey analysis.
At the same time, however, South Korean respondents showed clear unease with US unilateralism. In addition to 56% who rejected the notion that the US should act as the world"s policeman, 85% said the US should be more willing to make decisions within the UN.
While nearly nine out of 10 South Koreans believe, however, that the US would contribute military forces to reverse North Korean aggression against the South, that assumption is not necessarily favored by the US public, two-thirds of whom say they would only support such action if the United Nations authorized it and other countries contributed forces. Absent those conditions, only 43% say they would support intervention with US troops; 51% said they would oppose it.
As to the US military presence in South Korea, 57% of South Koreans said the current level of 37,000 was about right, while 35% said it was too many, and 8% too few. Fifty-two percent of Americans said 37,000 troops in South Korea were too many, while 34% said the level was about right. At the same time, 62% of Americans support the US having a long-term military base there.
Three out of every four South Koreans believe that North Korea already has nuclear weapons and the same percentage believe that the challenge posed by its nuclear program can be resolved diplomatically. Only 3% say they believe military action could be effective.
Nonetheless, South Koreans do not rule out the military option; on the contrary, 80% said they would approve of US military action if North Korea continued to produce nuclear weapons and the action were approved by the UN Security Council, the South Korean government, and major US allies. A similar percentage of Americans would also support such an attack under those circumstances.
The most important factor in gaining popular support for South Koreans is the approval of their own government and the UN, while the most important factor for Americans is UN approval.