South Koreans and Americans Remain Committed to Alliance, but Views Differ on North Korea and on Use of Force
A new binational survey of South Korean and American public opinion on foreign policy finds that despite some differences in their views of North Korea and the use of force, Americans and South Koreans overall have common views of global security and economic issues. They share a preference for multilateralism and show continued commitment to their military alliance.
This Global Views 2004 survey is the result of a new binational partnership between The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations (CCFR) and the East Asia Institute in South Korea. The survey finds that international terrorism and nuclear proliferation are top threats in both countries. Americans and South Koreans both support U.S. military action against North Korea if it continues to develop nuclear weapons as long as the UN, allies, and South Korea approve. Both publics reject preventive war by a country on its own and agree that the United States should be more willing to make decisions within the UN and should not play the role of world policeman.
South Koreans are concerned about U.S. unilateralism, but still view the United States as its preferred partner and prefer to keep U.S. troop levels in South Korea the same. Americans favor having U.S. military bases in South Korea and using U.S. troops in a UN-sponsored action to defend South Korea against an attack from the North, but prefer to decrease the number of troops stationed there.
-- Sixty-one percent of South Koreans and 75% of Americans view
international terrorism as a critical threat to their country's vital
interests. Fifty-nine percent of South Koreas view North Korea becoming
a nuclear power as a critical threat, and 64% of Americans see
unfriendly countries becoming nuclear powers as critical.
-- Eighty-two percent of South Koreans and 68% of Americans believe it
would be necessary to first get the approval of the UN Security Council
if the United States were to consider using military force to destroy
North Korea's nuclear capability.
-- Eighty percent of South Koreans and 79% of Americans say that if North
Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons, they support the United
States using military force to destroy North Korea's nuclear weapons
capability if the UN, allies, and South Korea approves. However, if the
approval of any one of these is not obtained, support is 38% or less
among South Koreans. Majorities of Americans always support action as
long as there is UN approval, regardless of whether allies and South
Korea approve. Additionally, 52% even support action without UN
approval if allies and South Korea do approve.
-- However, 76% of South Koreans believe that the North Korean nuclear
question can be resolved through dialogue between the U.S. and North
Korea or diplomatic pressure. Only 3% think it can be resolved through
military action. Sixty-one percent of South Koreans think North Korea
will give up its nuclear development programs either soon or eventually
through negotiation.
-- South Koreans do not view North Korea nearly as coldly as Americans do.
On a thermometer scale of 0 to 100 in which 0 is very cold, 100 is very
warm, and 50 is neutral, South Koreans give North Korea a mean
46 degrees, while Americans give it a cold 28 degrees.
-- Fifty percent of South Koreans view U.S. unilateralism as a critical
threat to their vital interests. Seventy-four percent of South Koreans
and 80% of Americans feel that the United States is playing the role of
the world policeman more than it should be.
-- Nevertheless, 78% of South Koreans say that the United States has a
beneficial impact on their security. Sixty percent say they support
U.S. forces in South Korea as a regional stabilizer. An overwhelming
89% believe the United States would support South Korea militarily in
the event of North Korean aggression. And 91% think the South Korea-
U.S. alliance should be maintained at some level after the
reunification of the Korean peninsula.
-- Sixty-four percent of Americans favor contributing U.S. troops together
with other countries to a UN-sponsored effort to defend South Korea
against an attack from North Korea. However, without UN approval
specified, only 43% favor using U.S. troops if North Korea invades
South Korea.
-- Sixty-two percent of Americans support the United States having long-
term military bases in South Korea. Yet 52% of Americans say the level
of troops in South Korea is too many (based on 37,000 troops at the
time of the survey), while 58% of South Koreans say that level is about
right. Most South Koreans anticipate U.S. forces being drawn down at
some point in the future, with a plurality of 43% saying they should be
withdrawn gradually in stages and another 38% saying they should remain
in South Korea for a considerable period.
-- Neither South Koreans nor Americans seem concerned about the proposed
reduction in that troop level by one-third. Sixty percent of South
Koreans say this would be good (as opposed to bad) for South Korea""s
security, and 53% of Americans think there would be no net effect on
South Korean security.
-- Eighty-five percent of South Koreans and 66% of Americans agree that
when dealing with international problems, the United States should be
more willing to make decisions within the United Nations even if this
means that the United States will sometimes have to go along with a
policy that is not its first choice.
-- Sixty-four percent of South Koreans think that countries on their own
should have the right to go to war with another country they believe
may pose a threat to them only if the other country attacks them first
(34%) or never (30%). Fifty-three percent of Americans believe
countries have this right only if they have strong evidence that they
are in danger of being attacked by the other country.
-- Sixty percent of South Koreans say the United States should never use
nuclear weapons under any circumstances. Fifty-seven percent of
Americans say the United States should only use nuclear weapons in
response to a nuclear attack. Only 5% of South Koreans and 19% of
Americans say that in certain circumstances, the United States should
use nuclear weapons even if it has not suffered a nuclear attack.
Nevertheless, 51% of South Koreans agree that South Korea should have
nuclear weapons.
-- Eighty-one percent of South Koreans and 64% of Americans say
globalization is generally good for their country.
-- Seventy-two percent of South Koreans think the United States practices
unfair trade with South Korea. A plurality of 49% of Americans think
South Korea practices fair trade with the United States.
South Korea Survey
The East Asia Institute commissioned Media Research of Seoul, South Korea, to collect data for this survey in South Korea. Media Research conducted face- to-face interviews, each lasting approximately 30 minutes, with a representative sample of 1,000 men and women 20 years or older. All fieldwork for the survey was conducted between July 5 and July 16, 2004. Based on the total sample in South Korea, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
U.S. Survey
In 2004, for the first time, The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations conducted its opinion survey of the general public through the Internet. Knowledge Networks, Inc. (KN) administered the survey between July 6 and July 12 to 1,195 American adults using its nationwide panel, which is randomly ed from the entire adult population and subsequently provided Internet access. Respondents answer questions on screens in their own homes. The margin of sampling error is approximately 3 percentage points.
Sponsoring Organizations
The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations is an independent, nonprofit, nonpartisan organization committed to building global awareness in Chicago and the Midwest and contributing to national and international discourse on the great issues of our time. We accomplish this mission through: public programs for members and diverse constituencies; leadership dialogue drawing on business, the professions, government, academia, the media, and civic life; national and international conferences, studies, and exchanges. Founded in 1922, The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations is supported by its members and other individuals, corporations, and foundations. The Chicago Council is one of the nation's most active centers fostering public understanding of world affairs and making local-global connections.
The East Asia Institute (EAI) strives to transform East Asia into a community of nations based on liberal democracy, market economy, open society, and peace. Toward this end, the EAI works to propagate diversity, tolerance, accountability, and transparency through its research, education campaigns, international exchanges, and civic activism. Founded in May 2002 on the initiative of former Prime Minister Lee Hong-Koo, Chairman Hong Seok-Hyun of Joongang Daily Newspaper, and Dr. Kim Byung-Kook of Korea University, the EAI has been building a wide variety of substantive networks among scholars and public institutions as well as among experts and NGOs. The EAI also houses the editorial board of the Journal of East Asian Studies.