ADRN

The global economic crisis is potentially a transition moment in the history of postwar order in East Asia. It is at least as significant as the 1997 crisis and probably more so. In late 2008 regional trade collapsed while growth rates plummeted. American capitalism and globalization stand co-accused. The political establishment is under pressure to do something while the shifting distribution of power, although still unclear, may alter the balance between them. In 2008, before the crisis hit full force, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the East Asia Institute, with the generous support of the Korea Foundation, conducted the first-ever multi-national survey of soft power in Asia. The project’s findings showed that the United States enjoyed greater levels of soft power than China in the eyes of several Asian publics. Now, ten months after that survey was put in the field, the tectonic plates that underpin the regional order in East Asia have been shaken. A key question is thus how the international financial crisis has affected American, Chinese, South Korean, and Japanese soft power in Asia. The Chicago Council/EAI report provides a baseline of soft power in Asia before the severe deepening of this crisis in September 2008. To build on this past work, The Chicago Council was proposing a special two day conference in Chicago in October 2009. This conference included 30 American and Asian participants drawn from current and former foreign policy and national security officials, academics, and policy experts to discuss the implications of the financial crisis for American, Chinese, South Korean, and Japanese soft power in East Asia. It opened with a keynote dinner address and took place over the course of the next day and a half. This conference will produce a conference report and will help set the agenda for a future Chicago Council multi-national opinion survey on hard and soft power in East Asia.

Confirmed Participants (United States and Asia)

Douglas Bereuter, Asia Foundation

Marshall Bouton, Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Rachel Bronson, Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Chaesung Chun, Seoul National University

Steven Clemons, New America Foundation

Paula Dobriansky, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

Aaron Friedberg, Princeton University, (tentative)

Ellen Frost, Peterson Institute for International Economics/ National Defense University

Peter Geithner, Harvard University

Young Sun Ha, Seoul National University

Sukhee Han, Yonsei University

Harry Harding, University of Virginia

Nobuhiro Hiwatari, Institute of Social Sciences, University of Tokyo

Paul Herman, National Intelligence Council

Byung-Kook Kim, East Asia Institute and Korea University

Sook-Jong Lee, East Asia Institute and Sungkyunkwan University

Mingjiang Li, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University

Barry Lowenkron, MacArthur Foundation

Raja Mohan, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University

Jackie Newmyer, Long Term Strategy Group

William Overholt, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

Dong Sun Park, Ambassador for International Economic Cooperation, Republic of Korea

Andrew Shearer, Lowy Institute for International Policy

Yinhong Shi, Center for American Studies, Renmin University of China

Mathew Stumpf, MacArthur Foundation

Motoshi Suzuki, School of Government, Kyoto University

Ashley Tellis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Thomas Wright, Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Dali Yang, University of Chicago

Xiaoming Zhang, School of International Studies, Peking University

Thursday – 22 October 2009

6:30p.m. Check-in and wine reception

6:55p.m. – 7:05p.m.

Opening Remarks: Marshall M. BOUTON, President, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Sook-Jong LEE, President, the East Asia Institute

7:05p.m. – 8:50p.m.

Dinner and Keynote Address: Ashley J. TELLIS: “Managing the Security Implications of the Economic Crisis in East Asia”

Friday – 23 October 2009

7:45a.m. Registration and breakfast

8:30a.m. – 11:40a.m. Session I: The Effects of the Financial Crisis on U.S. Soft Power

Moderator: Young Sun HA

8:30a.m. Thomas WRIGHT opens the workshop and outlines proceedings

8:40a.m. Part I: Why the Financial Crisis Matters for Soft Power in Asia

Ellen FROST memo presentation: “Recent Economic Trends: Implications for Post-Crisis Power Relations in East Asia”

8:50a.m. Yinhong SHI memo presentation: “Why the Crisis May Have Strategic Consequences for the U.S. Role in East Asia?”

9:00a.m. Commentary and Discussion

10:20a.m. Break

10:45a.m. Part II: The Future of U.S. Influence in East Asia

Jackie NEWMYER memo presentation: “U.S. Policy in East Asia after the Financial Crisis”

10:55a.m. Commentary and Discussion

11:30a.m. Session Adjourns

11:40 a.m. Lunch

12:10p.m. Keynote Address: Douglas BEREUTER:

“The Exercise of Soft Power and Public Diplomacy by a Nongovernmental Organization: The Experience and Programs of The Asia Foundation”

1:05p.m. Lunch Adjourns; Afternoon Session Begins

1:10p.m. – 4:20p.m. Session II: The Effects of the Financial Crisis on Chinese Soft Power Moderator: Harry HARDING

1:15p.m. Part I: China and the Financial Crisis

Xiaoming ZHANG memo presentation: “China and the Financial Crisis”

1:25p.m. Mingjiang LI memo presentation: “The Effects of the Financial Crisis on China’s Strategy”

1:35p.m. Commentary and Discussion

2:55p.m. Break

3:20p.m. Part II: U.S. and Regional reactions to China’s New Direction

Sukhee HAN memo presentation: “What Will Be the Long Term Impact of China’s Strategic Shift on its Influence in Asia”

3:30p.m. William OVERHOLT memo presentation: “The Financial Crisis and Chinese Soft Power”

3:40p.m. Commentary and Discussion

4:20p.m. Session Adjourns

6:15p.m. – 8:15p.m. Dinner and Keynote Address; Byung-Kook KIM: “Soft Power and East Asia's Divided Nations”

Hosted by the Korean Consulate of Chicago

Saturday – 24 October 2009

7:45a.m. Breakfast

8:30a.m. – 10:15a.m. Session III: Regional Repercussions-South Korea

Moderator: Nobuhiro HIWATARI

8:35a.m. Dong Sun PARK memo presentation: ““The Effects of the Crisis on South Korea”

8:45a.m. Chaesung CHUN memo presentation: “South Korea’s Views on East Asian Security”

8:55a.m. Commentary and Discussion

10:15a.m. Break

10:40a.m. – 12:25p.m. Session IV: Regional Repercussions-Japan

Moderator: Steven CLEMONS

10:45a.m. Motoshi SUZUKI memo presentation: “The Effects of the Crisis on Japan”

10:55a.m. Andrew SHEARER memo presentation: “U.S. and Regional Views of Japan”

11:05a.m. Commentary and Discussion

12:25p.m. Lunch

1:30p.m. Closing remarks: Marshall M. BOUTON and Sook-Jong LEE