The 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK), which was held over a period of 8 days, ended on January 12, 2021. In this commentary, Young-Sun Ha, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the East Asia Institute and Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University, analyzes Kim Jong Un’s report given during the 8th WPK and uses it to predict what comes next for North Korea. Professor Ha criticizes North Korea’s limitations in reviewing its own achievements during the past five years, arguing that the regime is viewing the future through the eyes of the past. Professor Ha argues that North Korea’s five-year economic development plan will suffer from continued economic sanctions and limited capacity for self-reliance. The constant strengthening of national defense, including nuclear weapons, will end up driving an arms race, paradoxically weakening the regime’s power. Professor Ha also anticipates difficulties for the regime with the new Biden administration, highlighting North Korea’s demands for sanctions relief and a security guarantee and the US expectation of a nuclear freeze including comprehensive reporting and verification. In order for North Korea to successfully deal with the triple crises of continued sanctions, the pandemic, and natural disasters over the next five years, Professor Ha asserts that North Korea must leave behind its Cold War mindset and seek a new strategy of denuclearization and coevolution suited for the 21st century.
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