윌리엄 토비(William Tobey) 로스 알라모스 국립연구소 소장은 핵비확산체제(nonproliferation regime)의 현황을 평가하고 그에 대한 전망을 제시합니다. 토비 소장은 최근까지 핵확산금지조약(Non-Proliferation Treaty: NPT)이 대체로 안정적으로 유지되었지만, 러시아가 NPT 조약을 위반하고 다른 나라들의 도전 행위를 비호하는 방식으로 국제질서에 도전하는 가운데 중국과 이란 등 국가들도 이에 동조하고 있어 한반도의 평화와 안정을 위협하고 있다고 지적합니다. 따라서 민주주의와 인권 등의 가치를 공유하는 동류(like-minded)국가들이 핵비확산체제를 강화하기 위한 구체적 협력 방안을 모색해야 한다고 강조합니다.

※︎ 본 인터뷰 내용은 “한반도 미래 질서 구축과 대타협의 길: 전략소통, 확장억제, 핵 비확산 분야 협력”을 주제로 한 Global NK 국제회의 두번째 세션에서 발표되었습니다.

I. Is the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) still viable?

• Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) has been a stable regime and a solid asset for international peace and security. While the death of NPT has been predicted many times, these predictions have been proven wrong. Yet this time may be different.

• Attack on the NPT regime will have a far-reaching impact on the Korean Peninsula. Since the 2000s, diplomacy to reverse the DPRK nuclear threat has stalled.

II. Who is threatening the future of nonproliferation?

• The world changed in February 2022 when Russia violated and vandalized the international order. Russia and China, both members of the NPT and permanent members of the UN Security Council, are evidently rethinking or already directly attacking the NPT.

• In response, however, further proliferation cannot be the answer. Like-minded countries supporting the NPT and shared values must act together. They must prepare an active defense of norms, values, and laws, and achieve more tangible defense.

III. How do we rebuild a stable nonproliferation regime?

• Extended deterrence has been the most successful nonproliferation policy in the course of history. The best evidence is shown by the difference between Poland and Ukraine. Fortunately, ROK is part of the U.S. treaty alliance and a beneficiary of U.S. extended deterrence. More work is needed bilaterally and multilaterally to fight against the threat to nonproliferation.

※ Please cite accordingly when referencing this source.

■ William Tobey is the Director of the Office of National Security and International Studies at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

■ 담당 및 편집: 박지수, EAI 연구원
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