켄 고스, 미국 해군 분석센터 상임국장은 미국이 강대국 경쟁을 전략적 우선순위로 두었기 때문에 북한 문제는 언제나 긴급하지 않은 과제로 밀려났다며, 북한의 입장에서는 그들의 존재가 무시당하는 것을 볼 수 없기에 국방력을 강화하며 미국을 압박해왔다고 주장합니다. 켄고스 국장은 바이든 정부가 오바마 때의 전략적 인내를 답습하려는 것처럼 보인다며 바이든 행정부가 북한과 적극적으로 관여해야 함을 강조합니다. 아울러, 북한에 대한 관여는 강대국 경쟁과 연계된 형태의 보다 큰 지역 전략의 한 요소로 재검토되고 통합되어야 한다고 제언합니다.

I. Limitation of Washington’s North Korea Policy

• Great Power Competition has been Washington’s top priority. Mr. Ken Gause demonstrates that this did not help the United States to measure up the threats that come from non-peer adversaries, who have asymmetrically weaker military and economic status. He mentions that this “carried unique dynamics that over time can change the international landscape more than is occurring in the Great Power Competition.”

• He states that “asymmetry in relations between the United States and less powerful adversary, North Korea makes the United States categorize North as a country which has challenges to be managed, and does not set the pace for U.S. national security policy unless they act up."

• He clarifies that the United States’ asymmetric challenge with North Korea stems from four primary causes, which are 1) conflict of interest between the weaker power (North Korea) and stronger power (the United States), 2) divergence between the two powers on the relative value of North Korea’s nuclear program, 3) contentment versus dissatisfaction with the status quo, and 4) North Korea’s fear of becoming even weaker if the status quo continues.

II. President Biden’s North Korea Policy

• Mr. Ken Gause indicates that the “Biden Administration has moved away from the high-stakes transactional diplomacy of the Trump administration … to pursue a strategy of coercion or strategic patience- similar to the Obama administration’s foreign policy toward asymmetrically weaker adversaries.”

• Based on the unique circumstances of the adversaries, he points out that “the return to traditional pressure strategies will likely lead to continued stalemate or worse growth of an adversarial threat held unaccountably.”

• He concerns that “there’s much that Biden is going to be able to do unless North Korea has a breakout phase… And the United States at least believes it still has some time, but the time could evaporate very quickly if North Korea starts to test what they did in 2017.”

Ⅲ. North Korea Policy Recommendations for the Biden Administration

• Mr. Ken Gause states that “with North Korea, engagement cannot be conducted as a black-and-white zero-sum-game. It must be re-examined and incorporated as part of a larger regional strategy tied to great power competition.”

• In order to actively pursue its goals regarding North Korea, he suggests that “President Biden should look at ways to introduce pragmatism into a reality-based approach”, including 1) conducting a serious assessment of the Trump era’s top-down approach, 2) appointing a special representative and give a significant authority to act on his behalf, 3) refraining from demonizing North Korea which will only cause Pyongyang to lash out further, and 4) revisiting basic principles of U.S. North Korea Policy.

• In addition, he proposes that the U.S. policymakers should make two major shifts in their strategy that are 1) dropping denuclearization as the single solidarity objective of U.S. strategy toward North Korea, and 2) integrating the denuclearization into a larger U.S. strategy in Asia focused on managing the relationship with China.

■ Ken Gause is the Research Program Director at the Center for Naval Analyses. He directs the Adversary Analytics Program. He is CNA’s senior foreign leadership analyst and has spent the last 20 years developing methodologies for examining leadership dynamics of hard-target, authoritarian regimes. In particular, he is an internationally respected expert on North Korea who has written three books on North Korean leadership. His latest book is North Korean House of Cards: Leadership Dynamics Under Kim Jong-un. Gause has also published numerous articles on leadership structures for such publications as Jane’s Intelligence Review, Jane’s Defense Weekly, and the Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. He has a B.A. from Vanderbilt in Russian and Political Science and an M.A. from the George Washington University in Soviet and East European Affairs.

■ Typeset by Junghoo Park, Research Associate
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