Editor's Note

On November 13, 2020, the EAI and Brookings institution jointly held the 2nd online seminar of the series titled "Prospects for U.S.-South Korea Cooperation in an Era of U.S.-China Strategic Competition". In session 1: politics and security, Sook Jong Lee addressed that, based on the survey result from 2005 to 2020 conducted by the East Asia Institute on Korean Identity, Korean’s support for the Korea-US alliance has been strengthened since the mid-2000s. Over the past 15 years, support for the Korea-US alliance has increased by 17.6 percent, and the support base has been solid regardless of ideology and political orientation. Meanwhile, regarding a survey question on the awareness of threats from other countries, it shows that people are more supportive to US-Korea alliances when they feel the greater threats from North Korea. In addition, regarding a survey question on US-China competition, more than 64 percent responded that South Korea should take a neutral stance amid US-China competition. However, if they had to choose between the US and China, more than twice as many people responded they would choose the US. As a conflict between the US and China intensifies, the awareness on threat has increased, and this suggests that intensifying US-China competition could negatively affect the South Korea-US alliance. Considering the so-called transactional approach that the Trump administration has shown to its allies, the new Biden administration’s stance of respecting the alliance is comforting to Koreans. It is expected to have a positive impact on Korea-US alliance. In addition, as the Korean government strengthens regional and global cooperation in areas such as democracy, health, and climate change, South Korea will be able to strengthen cooperation with the US in the aforementioned areas.

Quotes from the Paper

Introduction                  

Smaller countries tend to seek alliance with a stronger country when their geopolitical environment is unfavorable. South Korea’s alliance with the United States is supported by this geopolitical reason and is also rooted historically. By helping to both liberate South Korea from its 35 year-long Japa-nese colonial rule and defend it against North Korea’s invasion during the Korean War (1950-1953), the U.S. has planted historical legacy of the 1953 mutual security agreement, which continues to this date. However, the transition of South Korea (hereafter, Korea or ROK) from an impoverished na-tion to a developed democracy has made Koreans more conscious of establishing an equal partner-ship with their security patron. This is considered a natural development provided Korea’s progress and democratization.

Autonomy vs. Alliance

Snyder (2018) identifies geopolitical environment, rising national capacity, and domestic politics as three major factors that affect Korea’s strategic choice. Among the possible four strategies based on the autonomy vs. alliance axis and the peninsular focused parochialism vs. internationalism axis, he argues that the Korean strategy has evolved from parochial alliance dependency to alliance enabled internationalism. Since Korea is relatively weak compared to surrounding nations including China, Japan, and Russia, it faces limitations in its strategic choice. As such, it is difficult for Korea to withdraw from its alliance with the U.S. and its domestic politics plays less of a determining factor in its strategic choice when compared to other nations.  This is a valid point considering how the Korean government and political parties remain committed to the alliance regardless of their ideo-logical preferences. In terms of public opinion, however, there has been a notable change. Foreign policies tend to be more determined by technocrats and experts compared to other internally orient-ed economic and social policies. Nevertheless, they also lie increasingly under the scrutiny of media and advocacy citizen groups. How foreign policy issues are framed in the context of domestic poli-tics is important in determining the level of public support. Accordingly, managing public opinion is important in sustaining public support for the alliance.

Factors Affecting the ROK-US Alliance Support

This section compares alliance support across groups that are divided by different features and views. Nine variables are grouped into five categories in addition to two demographic variables. Survey respondents are divided into three groups. The first group consists of people who favor au-tonomous diplomacy, who selected a score from the 0 to 3 spectrum. The second group is composed of people with a neutral view, who selected from the 4 to 6 spectrum. The third group consists of those in support of the alliance support who selected from the 7 to 10 spectrum. The percentage proportions of these three groups of favoring autonomy, neutrality, and alliance are 19.4%, 47.4%, and 33.3% respectively, of the total number of 1,003 respondents.

Correlation Analysis

This section examines the correlation among considered variables. The purpose of correlation analy-sis is to examine the direction and degree of interaction among all variables. Several variables show high degrees of correlation with each other. For instance, the level of support for the alliance posi-tively correlates with the following variables: 1) threat perception of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, 2) favorability of the U.S. over China within the U.S.-China hegemonic competition, 3) favorable sentiment towards the U.S., and 4) weaker commitment to democracy.

Hierarchical Regression Analysis 

This section examines the level of influence amongst different variables. Model 1 examines three demographical variables: greater age and lower educational levels were seen to increase support for the ROK-U.S. alliance. Model 2 then takes into account all of the discussed variables in a cross ta-ble to perform simple correlation analyses. Among the threat perceptions, North Korea’s nuclear threat and the U.S.-China competition threat remain most significant in determining the different attitudes within the autonomy-alliance spectrum. The rise of China threat loses its statistical signifi-cance when correlated with alliance attitude in this hierarchical regression analysis. As seen in the simple correlation analysis, threat perception of North Korea’s nuclear program is positively correlat-ed with the level of support of the alliance. It is also notable that the threat perception coming from the U.S.-China competition is significantly significant in determining the alliance attitude in this model unlike the previous simple correlation analysis. In particular, those who see the hegemonic competition between the U.S. and China as a threat to Korea’s national interest are less supportive of the alliance with the U.S. This finding suggests that the Korean public is likely to see the burden of alliance ties with the U.S. as being increasingly costly along with rising bilateral competition be-tween two great powers. The fear of entanglement with regards to the U.S.-led conflict will also increase although the majority still favors the U.S. as a more dependable security guarantor. It is no-table that the desirable position in the U.S.-China competition loses its direct influence upon the al-liance attitude although there was a statistically significant correlation between two variables in the previous model. On the other hand, favorability remains strong in influencing people’s support for the ROK-U.S. In addition, the relationship between higher commitment to democracy and lower level of support for the alliance remains statistically significant in this model.

Conclusion

This paper aimed to measure the potential factors that can influence Koreans’ view on the ROK-U.S. alliance. The level of support for the alliance is measured according to a numerical spectrum ranging from 0 (autonomy) to 10 (alliance). Three statistical methods were employed to identify significant relations between these factors and the support towards the alliance. First, a cross-table analysis was conducted to compare group differences on alliance views. Second, a correlation analysis was con-ducted to check the degree of proximity between the different factors and whether they exerted a positive or negative influence upon alliance perception. Third, a hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to measure the weight of influence of each factor in comparison with others.

Author’s Biography

Sook Jong Lee is a Professor of Public Administration at Sungkyunkwan University and Senior Fellow of the East Asia Institute. She has been directing the Asian Democracy Research Network since its formation in 2015, leading a network of about nineteen research organizations across Asia to promote democracy with the support of the National Endowment for Democracy. Her recent publications include Transforming Global Governance with Middle Power Diplomacy: South Ko-rea’s Role in the 21st Century (ed. 2016), and Keys to Successful Presidency in South Korea (ed. 2013 and 2016).