Amidst the financial turmoil arising from the global economic crisis in late 2008, many observers recognized that the current international order was changing. It was clear that the United States could not make any rapid recovery by itself and that rising Asia, China in particular, would be playing a new and more prominent role. Grasping for new concepts in a changing world order, the notion of a G-2 was put forward by prominent thinkers like C. Fred Bergstein and Zbigniew Brzezinski. The G-2 brings together the world’s leading superpower, the United States, and the world’s future power, China. Such a concept is exciting but raises as many questions as it does solutions.

While there has been much discussion in the media and within academic circles, the views of Chinese experts on the matter are also important in understanding the validity of this concept. To bring in these voices, the East Asia Institute hosted a panel session at the World Congress for Korean Politics and Society 2009 organized by the Korean Association of Political Science. The East Asia Institute’s MacArthur Asia Security Initiative, as a research collaboration effort with partner institutions, invited two prominent scholars from China, Professor Feng Zhu (Peking University) and Professor Shunzhang Zhao (Shanghai Center for Strategic and International Studies), as well as esteemed expert Professor Chi Wook Kim from the Sejong Institute, to present their perspectives on the topic of “G-2 Era? Global Rise of China and the Future of East Asia/the Future of American Leadership.” For this panel Professor Chaesung Chun (Seoul National University) guided the session as the moderator, with Professor Seungjoo Lee (Chung-Ang University) serving as the designated discussant. Following the presentations from the three panelists and comments from the designated discussant, the panel received questions from participants who exchanged their views on the issue.

Bringing together these experts, a number of questions set out the course of the presentation and discussion. Can the G-2 work in solving the world’s problems while also addressing the mutual interests of the United States and China? What is the future of American leadership, and how will it endure in the future? What are the implications for China’s rise, and how will it coexist with the United States? The following is a summary of the main presentations of Feng Zhu, Shunzhang Zhao and Chi Wook Kim. A summary of the discussion involving Seungjoo Lee and other participants follows the presentation.

Presentation

(I) G-2 and Re-conceptualization of World Politics

Some form of a G-2 is in action today, but leaders on both sides have been very hesitant to openly support the idea. Feng Zhu began his presentation by asking why there is this reluctance to embrace or even talk of a G-2 partnership, particularly by China. While Beijing enjoys the recognition it receives from being part of the G-2, Zhu explained that its leaders have publically rebuked the notion of any G-2. Speaking at the European Summit Meeting in May 2009, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao dismissed the claim of a G-2 by saying that it is “groundless.” How can this reluctance be explained? In addressing this question, he looked into the G-2 concept and its implications on three key areas: China-United States relations, China’s foreign relations, and international security.

Zhu first set out to demonstrate the importance of the relationship between China and the United States, and listed the areas in which we can see the seeds of a symbiotic relationship. China is the largest creditor, America is the largest debtor, China is the largest exporter, America is the largest importer, both are the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, and both are major oil importers. Looking at these areas it would seem that China and the United States are natural partners that would form a relationship that could have a major impact on dealing with the world’s problems. However, Zhu was quick to point out the limits of this partnership and why the concept of a G-2 is not as feasible as it may seem, therefore explaining the reluctance shown by Beijing.

For Zhu, the G-2 issue is a double-sided coin. On the one side is the positive expectation and aspiration of improved China-United States relations as a result of this partnership. However, on the flip side to this excitement generated by closer ties is the fear that the G-2 will lead to China-United States domination of the world. As such, Chinese leaders have shown a hesitancy to support a G-2 they feel will lead to a bipolar world order. Zhu further explained that what Chinese leaders fear is that any G-2 format would require China to take on a larger responsibility in international affairs. With its main focus on pressing domestic issues, Beijing does not believe that China is ready to extend its international standing in the world. Nor does it feel inclined to do so in the future.

In addition, a world dominated by two powers manifested by the G-2 structure raises another major concern for Beijing: the effect this would have on its neighbors. This is something China is very sensitive about, particularly as it runs counter to its “Good Neighbor” policy of harmonious relations with those countries in the region.

In terms of power, Zhu asserted that there still is a great power disparity between China and the United States, rendering any discussion of a G-2 as premature. This power disparity also affects the efforts of any G-2 concept addressing international security issues. While the United States may wish Beijing to take on more international responsibilities, it has shown concern over China’s growing military capacity and is reluctant to endorse its continued military modernization. This highlights some of the uncertainties, inequalities, and difficulties in the China-United States relationship that Zhu believes dampens efforts for a G-2.

At the same time, Zhu emphasized that such skepticism should not mask the need for greater cooperation between China and the United States in handling international affairs. He was adamant on this point and felt that there are many benefits to closer cooperation. Zhu noted that the recent United States-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue was a good starting point. But the G-2, Zhu concluded, was not the answer. That thought left open the question of what is...(Continued)  

Presenters

Chi Wook Kim (Sejong Institute)

Shunzhang Zhao (Shanghai Center for Strategic and International Studies)

Feng Zhu (Peking University)

Moderator

Chaesung Chun (Seoul National University)

Discussant

Seungjoo Lee (Chung-Ang University)