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The global economic crisis is potentially a transition moment in the history of postwar order in East Asia. It is at least as significant as the 1997 crisis and probably more so. In late 2008 regional trade collapsed while growth rates plummeted. American capitalism and globalization stand co-accused. The political establishment is under pressure to do something while the shifting distribution of power, although still unclear, may alter the balance between them.
In 2008, before the crisis hit full force, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the East Asia Institute, with the generous support of the Korea Foundation, conducted the first-ever multi-national survey of soft power in Asia. The project’s findings showed that the United States enjoyed greater levels of soft power than China in the eyes of several Asian publics. Now, ten months after that survey was put in the field, the tectonic plates that underpin the regional order in East Asia have been shaken. A key question is thus how the international financial crisis has affected American, Chinese, South Korean, and Japanese soft power in Asia. The Chicago Council/EAI report provides a baseline of soft power in Asia before the severe deepening of this crisis in September 2008. To build on this past work, The Chicago Council was proposing a special two day conference in Chicago in October 2009. This conference included 30 American and Asian participants drawn from current and former foreign policy and national security officials, academics, and policy experts to discuss the implications of the financial crisis for American, Chinese, South Korean, and Japanese soft power in East Asia. It opened with a keynote dinner address and took place over the course of the next day and a half. This conference will produce a conference report and will help set the agenda for a future Chicago Council multi-national opinion survey on hard and soft power in East Asia.
Confirmed Participants (United States and Asia) Douglas Bereuter, Asia Foundation Marshall Bouton, Chicago Council on Global Affairs Rachel Bronson, Chicago Council on Global Affairs Chaesung Chun, Seoul National University Steven Clemons, New America Foundation Paula Dobriansky, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Aaron Friedberg, Princeton University, (tentative) Ellen Frost, Peterson Institute for International Economics/ National Defense University Peter Geithner, Harvard University Young Sun Ha, Seoul National University Sukhee Han, Yonsei University Harry Harding, University of Virginia Nobuhiro Hiwatari, Institute of Social Sciences, University of Tokyo Paul Herman, National Intelligence Council Byung-Kook Kim, East Asia Institute and Korea University Sook-Jong Lee, East Asia Institute and Sungkyunkwan University Mingjiang Li, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University Barry Lowenkron, MacArthur Foundation Raja Mohan, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University Jackie Newmyer, Long Term Strategy Group William Overholt, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Dong Sun Park, Ambassador for International Economic Cooperation, Republic of Korea Andrew Shearer, Lowy Institute for International Policy Yinhong Shi, Center for American Studies, Renmin University of China Mathew Stumpf, MacArthur Foundation Motoshi Suzuki, School of Government, Kyoto University Ashley Tellis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Thomas Wright, Chicago Council on Global Affairs Dali Yang, University of Chicago Xiaoming Zhang, School of International Studies, Peking University
Thursday – 22 October 2009
6:30p.m. Check-in and wine reception
6:55p.m. – 7:05p.m. Opening Remarks: Marshall M. BOUTON, President, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Sook-Jong LEE, President, the East Asia Institute
7:05p.m. – 8:50p.m. Dinner and Keynote Address: Ashley J. TELLIS: “Managing the Security Implications of the Economic Crisis in East Asia”
Friday – 23 October 2009
7:45a.m. Registration and breakfast
8:30a.m. – 11:40a.m. Session I: The Effects of the Financial Crisis on U.S. Soft Power
Moderator: Young Sun HA
8:30a.m. Thomas WRIGHT opens the workshop and outlines proceedings
8:40a.m. Part I: Why the Financial Crisis Matters for Soft Power in Asia
Ellen FROST memo presentation: “Recent Economic Trends: Implications for Post-Crisis Power Relations in East Asia”
8:50a.m. Yinhong SHI memo presentation: “Why the Crisis May Have Strategic Consequences for the U.S. Role in East Asia?”
9:00a.m. Commentary and Discussion
10:20a.m. Break
10:45a.m. Part II: The Future of U.S. Influence in East Asia
Jackie NEWMYER memo presentation: “U.S. Policy in East Asia after the Financial Crisis”
10:55a.m. Commentary and Discussion
11:30a.m. Session Adjourns
11:40 a.m. Lunch
12:10p.m. Keynote Address: Douglas BEREUTER: “The Exercise of Soft Power and Public Diplomacy by a Nongovernmental Organization: The Experience and Programs of The Asia Foundation”
1:05p.m. Lunch Adjourns; Afternoon Session Begins
1:10p.m. – 4:20p.m. Session II: The Effects of the Financial Crisis on Chinese Soft Power Moderator: Harry HARDING
1:15p.m. Part I: China and the Financial Crisis Xiaoming ZHANG memo presentation: “China and the Financial Crisis”
1:25p.m. Mingjiang LI memo presentation: “The Effects of the Financial Crisis on China’s Strategy”
1:35p.m. Commentary and Discussion
2:55p.m. Break
3:20p.m. Part II: U.S. and Regional reactions to China’s New Direction
Sukhee HAN memo presentation: “What Will Be the Long Term Impact of China’s Strategic Shift on its Influence in Asia”
3:30p.m. William OVERHOLT memo presentation: “The Financial Crisis and Chinese Soft Power”
3:40p.m. Commentary and Discussion
4:20p.m. Session Adjourns
6:15p.m. – 8:15p.m. Dinner and Keynote Address; Byung-Kook KIM: “Soft Power and East Asia's Divided Nations” Hosted by the Korean Consulate of Chicago
Saturday – 24 October 2009
7:45a.m. Breakfast
8:30a.m. – 10:15a.m. Session III: Regional Repercussions-South Korea
Moderator: Nobuhiro HIWATARI
8:35a.m. Dong Sun PARK memo presentation: ““The Effects of the Crisis on South Korea”
8:45a.m. Chaesung CHUN memo presentation: “South Korea’s Views on East Asian Security”
8:55a.m. Commentary and Discussion
10:15a.m. Break
10:40a.m. – 12:25p.m. Session IV: Regional Repercussions-Japan
Moderator: Steven CLEMONS
10:45a.m. Motoshi SUZUKI memo presentation: “The Effects of the Crisis on Japan”
10:55a.m. Andrew SHEARER memo presentation: “U.S. and Regional Views of Japan”
11:05a.m. Commentary and Discussion
12:25p.m. Lunch
1:30p.m. Closing remarks: Marshall M. BOUTON and Sook-Jong LEE
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